Football · Spain Tercera Group 5 · 05/09, 17:00

Prediction: UE Tona vs CFJ Mollerussa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.06Total

UE Tona1.12

CFJ Mollerussa0.94

1X2

39% 31% 30%

UE Tona Draw CFJ Mollerussa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

UE Tona 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDDLDDLW

CFJ Mollerussa 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDDDDLW

Head-to-head

UE Tona 1–2–3 CFJ Mollerussa (6 last)

UE Tona0-0CFJ Mollerussa
CFJ Mollerussa1-0UE Tona
UE Tona0-3CFJ Mollerussa
CFJ Mollerussa5-1UE Tona
UE Tona0-0CFJ Mollerussa
CFJ Mollerussa0-3UE Tona

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UE Tona 1499 · CFJ Mollerussa 1541

	UE Tona	Draw	CFJ Mollerussa
Our model	38%	33%	29%
Market	40%	29%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CFJ Mollerussa (rating 1499 vs 1541).
H2H favours CFJ Mollerussa: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UE Tona	CFJ Mollerussa
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.8	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/75/0%	33/50/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.8	0.8 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	5.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.10

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.40 ★
X	3.20 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
2	3.20 → 2.90▼	Pinn 3.04

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:27 +6’	2.05	3.20	3.20
19:52 +26’	2.25▲	3.10▼	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:17 +1’	2.40	2.78	3.04

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UE Tona 1–2–3 CFJ Mollerussa

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Spain Tercera Group 5	UE Tona	0-0	CFJ Mollerussa
21/12/25 Spain Tercera Group 5	CFJ Mollerussa	1-0	UE Tona
16/02/25 Spain Tercera Group 5	UE Tona	0-3 HT 0-1	CFJ Mollerussa
06/10/24 Spain Tercera Group 5	CFJ Mollerussa	5-1	UE Tona
14/04/24 Spain Tercera Group 5	UE Tona	0-0 HT 0-0	CFJ Mollerussa
26/11/23 Spain Tercera Group 5	CFJ Mollerussa	0-3	UE Tona

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 5

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletic Lleida	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CE Europa B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CE L'Hospitalet	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerdanyola del Valles FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Badalona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CF Montanesa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Peralada	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pobla Mafumet	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vilanova Geltru	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CFJ Mollerussa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UE Cornella	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CP San Cristobal	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC L'Escala	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Martinenc	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FE Grama	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UE San Juan Atletico de Montcada	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UE Tona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UE Vilassar de Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UE Tona	CFJ Mollerussa
FC L'Escala	2-0 W	2-2 D
UE Vilassar de Mar	1-3 L	2-0 W
CP San Cristobal	2-2 D	0-1 L
UE Cornella	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UE Tona

WDDDDLDDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/05	FC L'Escala Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
03/05	UE Vilassar de Mar Spain Tercera Group 5	–	1-3	–	–	L
26/04	CFJ Mollerussa Spain Tercera Group 5	–	0-0	–	–	D
19/04	CP San Cristobal Spain Tercera Group 5	–	2-2	–	–	D
12/04	UE Cornella Spain Tercera Group 5	–	0-1	–	–	L
04/04	Badalona Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
29/03	CF Montanesa Spain Tercera Group 5	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/03	Cerdanyola del Valles FC Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	1-1	5	9	D
15/03	Peralada Spain Tercera Group 5	–	0-0	–	–	D
11/03	CE L'Hospitalet Spain Tercera Group 5	2-0	4-1	9	5	W

CFJ Mollerussa

WLWWDDDDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	CE Europa B Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
03/05	FE Grama Spain Tercera Group 5	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/04	UE Tona Spain Tercera Group 5	–	0-0	–	–	D
19/04	Lleida Spain Tercera Group 5	–	0-0	–	–	D
12/04	Vilanova Geltru Spain Tercera Group 5	1-2	2-2	2	4	D
03/04	FC L'Escala Spain Tercera Group 5	1-1	2-2	3	7	D
28/03	UE Vilassar de Mar Spain Tercera Group 5	0-0	2-0	5	9	W
22/03	CF Can Vidalet Spain Tercera Group 5	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
15/03	CP San Cristobal Spain Tercera Group 5	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/03	UE Cornella Spain Tercera Group 5	1-1	2-1	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UE Tona vs CFJ Mollerussa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UE Tona win (39%). Probabilities: UE Tona 39%, draw 31%, CFJ Mollerussa 30%.

How many goals are expected in UE Tona vs CFJ Mollerussa?

The model expects 2.06 goals (UE Tona 1.12 · CFJ Mollerussa 0.94), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in UE Tona vs CFJ Mollerussa?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.