Football · Argentina Torneo A · 08/08, 01:45

Prediction: Sportivo Belgrano vs CA 9 de Julio Rafaela

Team pages: Sportivo Belgrano · CA 9 de Julio Rafaela

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.27Total

Sportivo Belgrano1.52

CA 9 de Julio Rafaela0.75

1X2

55% 28% 17%

Sportivo Belgrano Draw CA 9 de Julio Rafaela

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo Belgrano 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDDDDD

CA 9 de Julio Rafaela 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWWLLLDW

Head-to-head

Sportivo Belgrano 4–1–1 CA 9 de Julio Rafaela (6 last)

CA 9 de Julio Rafaela0-2Sportivo Belgrano
Sportivo Belgrano3-0CA 9 de Julio Rafaela
CA 9 de Julio Rafaela0-0Sportivo Belgrano
CA 9 de Julio Rafaela3-1Sportivo Belgrano
Sportivo Belgrano1-0CA 9 de Julio Rafaela
Sportivo Belgrano1-0CA 9 de Julio Rafaela

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo Belgrano 1537 · CA 9 de Julio Rafaela 1470

	Sportivo Belgrano	Draw	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela
Our model	55%	28%	17%
Market	55%	28%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo Belgrano (rating 1537 vs 1470).
H2H favours Sportivo Belgrano: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo Belgrano	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.5	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.9	1.3 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	3.3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.20

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
00:04 +45’	1.65	3.20	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Belgrano 4–1–1 CA 9 de Julio Rafaela

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Argentina Torneo A	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela	0-2 HT 0-1	Sportivo Belgrano
21/03/26 Argentina Torneo A	Sportivo Belgrano	3-0 HT 2-0	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela
02/09/25 Argentina Torneo A	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela	0-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Belgrano
07/06/25 Argentina Torneo A	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela	3-1 HT 2-1	Sportivo Belgrano
08/04/25 Argentina Torneo A	Sportivo Belgrano	1-0 HT 1-0	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela
25/08/24 Argentina Torneo A	Sportivo Belgrano	1-0 HT 1-0	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela

Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Main round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Martin Formosa	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
2	Defensores de Belgrano VR	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
3	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
3	CA Douglas Haig	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
3	Sportivo Belgrano	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
3	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
7	CA Sarmiento de la Banda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Sol de America de Formosa	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
9	CA Bartolome Mitre	1	0	0	1	0	1	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo Belgrano	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela
Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy	0-0 D	2-1 W
Escobar FC	2-2 D	0-2 L
Sportivo Las Parejas	0-0 D	2-2 D
Independiente Chivilcoy	1-1 D	2-2 D
Club Atlético El Linqueño	1-1 D	3-2 W
CA Douglas Haig	0-0 D	0-0 D
Defensores de Belgrano VR	1-0 W	1-2 L
Gimnasia y Esgrima	0-1 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 6 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo Belgrano (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sportivo Belgrano

WWLWDDDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
25/07	Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
12/07	Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
05/07	Independiente Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
28/06	Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
20/06	CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
15/06	Defensores de Belgrano VR Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
07/06	Gimnasia y Esgrima Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
31/05	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
24/05	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-0	5	5	W

CA 9 de Julio Rafaela

DDLWWLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	Club Sanjustino Argentina Copa Santa Fe	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
02/08	CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
26/07	CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
13/07	Defensores de Belgrano VR Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
05/07	Gimnasia y Esgrima Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
28/06	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
23/06	Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A	2-1	3-2	3	1	W
13/06	Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A	0-2	0-2	1	5	L
07/06	Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A	1-1	2-2	2	8	D
31/05	Independiente Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-2	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo Belgrano vs CA 9 de Julio Rafaela?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportivo Belgrano win (55%). Probabilities: Sportivo Belgrano 55%, draw 28%, CA 9 de Julio Rafaela 17%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo Belgrano vs CA 9 de Julio Rafaela?

The model expects 2.27 goals (Sportivo Belgrano 1.52 · CA 9 de Julio Rafaela 0.75), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo Belgrano vs CA 9 de Julio Rafaela?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.