Football · Argentina Torneo A · 16/08, 21:00

Prediction: Sarmiento de Resistencia vs Boca Unidos

Team pages: Sarmiento de Resistencia · Boca Unidos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Sarmiento de Resistencia1.34

Boca Unidos0.84

1X2

47% 30% 22%

Sarmiento de Resistencia Draw Boca Unidos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sarmiento de Resistencia 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLWLLW

Boca Unidos 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWLLWD

Head-to-head

Sarmiento de Resistencia 1–3–2 Boca Unidos (6 last)

Boca Unidos2-0Sarmiento de Resistencia
Sarmiento de Resistencia1-1Boca Unidos
Boca Unidos1-0Sarmiento de Resistencia
Boca Unidos0-0Sarmiento de Resistencia
Sarmiento de Resistencia2-1Boca Unidos
Sarmiento de Resistencia0-0Boca Unidos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sarmiento de Resistencia 1460 · Boca Unidos 1496

	Sarmiento de Resistencia	Draw	Boca Unidos
Our model	47%	31%	22%
Market	47%	30%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Boca Unidos: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sarmiento de Resistencia	Boca Unidos
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.8	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
20:52 +4’	1.90	3.00	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarmiento de Resistencia 1–3–2 Boca Unidos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/26 Argentina Torneo A	Boca Unidos	2-0 HT 1-0	Sarmiento de Resistencia
03/05/26 Argentina Torneo A	Sarmiento de Resistencia	1-1 HT 0-0	Boca Unidos
16/08/25 Argentina Torneo A	Boca Unidos	1-0 HT 0-0	Sarmiento de Resistencia
18/05/25 Argentina Torneo A	Boca Unidos	0-0 HT 0-0	Sarmiento de Resistencia
16/03/25 Argentina Torneo A	Sarmiento de Resistencia	2-1 HT 2-1	Boca Unidos
28/07/24 Argentina Torneo A	Sarmiento de Resistencia	0-0 HT 0-0	Boca Unidos

Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Relegation round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Defensores Puerto Vilelas	3	2	1	0	8	4	7
2	Escobar FC	4	2	1	1	4	5	7
3	Club Atlético El Linqueño	3	1	2	0	3	1	5
4	Gimnasia y Esgrima	2	1	1	0	4	0	4
5	Boca Unidos	2	1	1	0	4	1	4
6	Sarmiento de Resistencia	3	1	0	2	3	6	3
7	Sportivo Las Parejas	3	0	2	1	0	2	2
8	Independiente Chivilcoy	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
9	Tucuman Central	4	0	1	3	6	12	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sarmiento de Resistencia	Boca Unidos
Independiente Chivilcoy	2-1 W	1-1 D
Escobar FC	0-1 L	3-0 W
Defensores Puerto Vilelas	1-4 L	0-2 L
Sol de America de Formosa	2-1 W	2-3 L
Tucuman Central	1-0 W	0-2 L
San Martin Formosa	0-3 L	3-1 W
CA Bartolome Mitre	0-2 L	2-1 W
CA Sarmiento de la Banda	0-1 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sarmiento de Resistencia

LLWLWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	Independiente Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	1-1	2-1	1	6	W
08/08	Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
03/08	Defensores Puerto Vilelas Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-4	6	5	L
26/07	Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A	2-0	2-1	6	1	W
05/07	Boca Unidos Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
28/06	Tucuman Central Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
21/06	San Martin Formosa Argentina Torneo A	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
14/06	Defensores Puerto Vilelas Argentina Torneo A	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
06/06	CA Bartolome Mitre Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
31/05	CA Sarmiento de la Banda Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-1	10	4	L

Boca Unidos

LWLWLWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Independiente Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
01/08	Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
26/07	Juventud Antoniana Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-3	6	3	L
12/07	Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A	2-0	2-3	–	–	L
05/07	Sarmiento de Resistencia Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
21/06	Tucuman Central Argentina Torneo A	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
14/06	San Martin Formosa Argentina Torneo A	1-0	3-1	1	4	W
06/06	Defensores Puerto Vilelas Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-2	9	5	L
31/05	CA Bartolome Mitre Argentina Torneo A	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
25/05	CA Sarmiento de la Banda Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-3	8	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sarmiento de Resistencia vs Boca Unidos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sarmiento de Resistencia win (47%). Probabilities: Sarmiento de Resistencia 47%, draw 30%, Boca Unidos 22%.

How many goals are expected in Sarmiento de Resistencia vs Boca Unidos?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Sarmiento de Resistencia 1.34 · Boca Unidos 0.84), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sarmiento de Resistencia vs Boca Unidos?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.