Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 23/08, 21:00

Prediction: Real Oruro vs Bolivar

Team pages: Real Oruro · Bolivar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.26Total

Real Oruro1.46

Bolivar2.8

1X2

17% 18% 65%

Real Oruro Draw Bolivar

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Real Oruro 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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Bolivar 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWDWL

Head-to-head

Real Oruro 1–2 Bolivar (3 last)

Bolivar5-2Real Oruro
Real Oruro3-1Bolivar
Bolivar3-1Real Oruro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Oruro 1418 · Bolivar 1550

	Real Oruro	Draw	Bolivar
Our model	17%	18%	65%
Market	17%	19%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 4.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bolivar (rating 1418 vs 1550).
H2H favours Bolivar: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Oruro	Bolivar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 3.2	2.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.5	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.2	2.8 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	3.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

15.50

X5.00

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.95

2 (-1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
06:13 +2’	5.25	5.00	1.44
16:12 +19’	5.50▲	5.00	1.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Oruro 1–0–2 Bolivar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Bolivar	5-2 HT 3-0	Real Oruro
02/08/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Real Oruro	3-1 HT 1-0	Bolivar
29/03/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Bolivar	3-1 HT 1-0	Real Oruro

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Always Ready	15	10	4	1	32	9	34
2	Bolivar	15	9	3	3	36	16	30
3	The Strongest	15	7	6	2	22	17	27
4	Real Potosi	15	6	6	3	22	11	24
5	Guabira	15	7	3	5	26	27	24
6	Oriente Petrolero	15	7	2	6	25	20	23
7	Club Aurora	15	5	7	3	23	22	22
8	Independiente Petrolero	15	6	4	5	22	21	22
9	Blooming	15	5	6	4	20	16	21
10	Nacional Potosi	15	5	3	7	22	21	18
11	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	15	5	2	8	18	28	17
12	Real Oruro	15	5	2	8	27	38	17
13	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	15	5	1	9	24	31	16
14	GV San Jose	15	2	6	7	14	22	12
15	Real Tomayapo	15	3	3	9	11	31	12
16	Universitario De Vinto	15	3	2	10	17	31	11

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Oruro	Bolivar
Always Ready	2-4 L	0-1 L
Oriente Petrolero	2-3 L	2-1 W
Guabira	1-4 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bolivar (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Real Oruro

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Always Ready Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	1-2	2-4	2	7	L
15/08	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	2-3	2-3	6	4	L
08/08	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	3	2	W
04/08	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-4	3	4	L
01/08	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-3	3	6	L
25/07	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-3	1-4	5	5	L
21/07	Nacional Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	2-0	4-1	2	4	W
19/07	EM Huanuni Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
15/07	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-3	0-6	4	4	L
13/07	Club Ingenieros Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar	0-1	0-4	–	–	L

Bolivar

WWWWLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/08	Sao Paulo Copa Sudamericana	0-1	1-3	3	7	L
15/08	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	4-1	6	3	W
12/08	Sao Paulo Copa Sudamericana	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
09/08	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	4-2	4	6	W
06/08	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	13	5	W
02/08	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
31/07	Gremio Copa Sudamericana	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
26/07	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
24/07	Gremio Copa Sudamericana	2-2	3-2	6	2	W
18/07	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	4-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Oruro vs Bolivar?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bolivar win (65%). Probabilities: Real Oruro 17%, draw 18%, Bolivar 65%.

How many goals are expected in Real Oruro vs Bolivar?

The model expects 4.26 goals (Real Oruro 1.46 · Bolivar 2.8), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Oruro vs Bolivar?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.