Football · Bolivia Primera Division · 26/08, 01:00

Prediction: Universitario De Vinto vs Nacional Potosi

Team pages: Universitario De Vinto · Nacional Potosi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Universitario De Vinto1.51

Nacional Potosi1.56

1X2

36% 26% 38%

Universitario De Vinto Draw Nacional Potosi

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Universitario De Vinto 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLDLLLL

Nacional Potosi 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLWLLLWW

Head-to-head

Universitario De Vinto 1–2–3 Nacional Potosi (6 last)

Nacional Potosi1-0Universitario De Vinto
Universitario De Vinto2-2Nacional Potosi
Universitario De Vinto4-3Nacional Potosi
Nacional Potosi0-0Universitario De Vinto
Nacional Potosi5-1Universitario De Vinto
Universitario De Vinto0-1Nacional Potosi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universitario De Vinto 1411 · Nacional Potosi 1491

	Universitario De Vinto	Draw	Nacional Potosi
Our model	36%	26%	38%
Market	36%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional Potosi (rating 1411 vs 1491).
H2H favours Nacional Potosi: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universitario De Vinto	Nacional Potosi
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.7	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 6.3	1.5 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.50

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:08 +11’	2.60	3.50	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Universitario De Vinto 1–2–3 Nacional Potosi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Bolivia Primera Division	Nacional Potosi	1-0 HT 0-0	Universitario De Vinto
23/11/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Universitario De Vinto	2-2 HT 2-1	Nacional Potosi
23/10/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Universitario De Vinto	4-3 HT 2-0	Nacional Potosi
08/10/25 Bolivia Copa Division Profesional	Nacional Potosi	0-0 HT 0-0	Universitario De Vinto
13/08/25 Bolivia Primera Division	Nacional Potosi	5-1 HT 3-1	Universitario De Vinto
05/03/25 Copa Sudamericana	Universitario De Vinto	0-1 HT 0-1	Nacional Potosi

Standings · Bolivia Primera Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Always Ready	16	10	5	1	33	10	35
2	Bolivar	16	10	3	3	40	18	33
3	The Strongest	16	8	6	2	26	20	30
4	Oriente Petrolero	16	8	2	6	29	20	26
5	Real Potosi	16	6	7	3	22	11	25
6	Guabira	16	7	4	5	27	28	25
7	Club Aurora	16	5	8	3	23	22	23
8	Blooming	16	5	7	4	21	17	22
9	Independiente Petrolero	16	6	4	6	22	24	22
10	Nacional Potosi	16	6	3	7	25	21	21
11	Academia de Balompie Boliviano	16	5	2	9	26	33	17
12	Real Oruro	16	5	2	9	29	42	17
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	16	5	2	9	18	32	17
14	GV San Jose	16	2	7	7	16	24	13
15	Real Tomayapo	16	3	4	9	12	32	13
16	Universitario De Vinto	16	3	2	11	20	35	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universitario De Vinto	Nacional Potosi
The Strongest	3-4 L	2-3 L
Real Tomayapo	0-1 L	4-1 W
Oriente Petrolero	0-5 L	0-1 L
Real Potosi	0-2 L	1-1 D
Guabira	1-1 D	1-2 L
Real Oruro	1-4 L	1-4 L
Club Aurora	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 6 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Nacional Potosi (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universitario De Vinto

WLLLLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	2-2	3-4	5	5	L
14/08	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
10/08	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	0-5	1	3	L
06/08	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
31/07	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-1	13	2	D
27/07	GV San Jose Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
18/07	Always Ready Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-4	1	0	L
09/07	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-4	6	6	L
02/06	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	1-1	1-2	9	7	L
16/05	Bolivar Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	3-2	7	4	W

Nacional Potosi

LWDLWLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Independiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
16/08	Academia de Balompie Boliviano Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
08/08	San Antonio Bulo Bulo Bolivia Primera Division	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
06/08	The Strongest Bolivia Primera Division	2-1	2-3	3	4	L
03/08	Oriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
27/07	Real Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division	3-1	4-1	4	3	W
21/07	Real Oruro Bolivia Primera Division	0-2	1-4	4	4	L
12/07	Real Potosi Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
10/07	Club Aurora Bolivia Primera Division	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
18/05	Guabira Bolivia Primera Division	1-0	1-2	0	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universitario De Vinto vs Nacional Potosi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nacional Potosi win (38%). Probabilities: Universitario De Vinto 36%, draw 26%, Nacional Potosi 38%.

How many goals are expected in Universitario De Vinto vs Nacional Potosi?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Universitario De Vinto 1.51 · Nacional Potosi 1.56), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Universitario De Vinto vs Nacional Potosi?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.