Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 08/08, 20:00

Prediction: Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs JJ Urquiza

Team pages: Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn · JJ Urquiza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.86Total

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn1.17

JJ Urquiza0.69

1X2

47% 32% 21%

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Draw JJ Urquiza

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLWWLWDL

JJ Urquiza 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDLDDWDD

Head-to-head

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 0–1–0 JJ Urquiza (1 last)

JJ Urquiza1-1Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 1515 · JJ Urquiza 1460

	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	Draw	JJ Urquiza
Our model	46%	33%	20%
Market	47%	31%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 1.86 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn (rating 1515 vs 1460).
Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	JJ Urquiza
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	1.3 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7 / 0.6	5.1 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.91

X2.88

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.85

Under 1.751.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 1.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
03:59 +2’	1.91	2.88	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 0–1–0 JJ Urquiza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	JJ Urquiza	1-1 HT 1-1	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sacachispas	22	11	5	6	27	16	38
2	Berazategui	22	9	9	4	24	15	36
3	CA Lugano	22	9	8	5	27	20	35
4	Club Mercedes	22	8	9	5	23	12	33
5	Puerto Nuevo	22	8	9	5	19	19	33
6	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	22	8	8	6	23	20	32
7	Centro Espanol	22	8	7	7	27	20	31
8	Victoriano Arenas	22	7	10	5	18	13	31
9	Juventud Unida San Miguel	21	7	7	7	23	20	28
10	Club Leandro N. Alem	21	7	6	8	25	34	27
11	Defensores de Cambaceres	22	5	7	10	17	26	22
12	JJ Urquiza	22	3	12	7	9	18	21
13	Deportivo Paraguayo	22	4	8	10	12	27	20
14	Argentino de Rosario	22	2	12	8	20	28	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	JJ Urquiza
Club Mercedes	1-1 D	0-5 L
Deportivo Paraguayo	1-0 W	0-0 D
Puerto Nuevo	0-1 L	0-1 L
Club Leandro N. Alem	3-0 W	0-2 L
Defensores de Cambaceres	3-0 W	0-1 L
CA Lugano	3-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn

WDDLWWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/08	Lujan Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	1	5	L
31/07	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	6	9	D
25/07	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
12/07	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
04/07	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
28/06	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	2	6	W
14/06	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
06/06	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	13	D
30/05	Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	7	12	D
23/05	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	3-2	4	11	W

JJ Urquiza

LLLDLDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
25/07	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
18/07	Deportivo Muniz Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
12/07	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
04/07	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
27/06	Club Mercedes Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-4	0-5	3	6	L
13/06	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
06/06	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
31/05	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	4	9	L
23/05	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs JJ Urquiza?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn win (47%). Probabilities: Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 47%, draw 32%, JJ Urquiza 21%.

How many goals are expected in Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs JJ Urquiza?

The model expects 1.86 goals (Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn 1.17 · JJ Urquiza 0.69), with a 50% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn vs JJ Urquiza?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.