Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 08/08, 20:00

Prediction: Argentino de Rosario vs Club Mercedes

Team pages: Argentino de Rosario · Club Mercedes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2Total

Argentino de Rosario0.95

Club Mercedes1.05

1X2

31% 33% 36%

Argentino de Rosario Draw Club Mercedes

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 61% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Argentino de Rosario 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDDLDDDL

Club Mercedes 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDLWWDWWD

Head-to-head

Argentino de Rosario 1–2–3 Club Mercedes (6 last)

Club Mercedes1-0Argentino de Rosario
Club Mercedes1-1Argentino de Rosario
Argentino de Rosario2-0Club Mercedes
Argentino de Rosario1-2Club Mercedes
Club Mercedes1-1Argentino de Rosario
Argentino de Rosario2-4Club Mercedes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Argentino de Rosario 1453 · Club Mercedes 1561

	Argentino de Rosario	Draw	Club Mercedes
Our model	31%	34%	36%
Market	31%	33%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Mercedes (rating 1453 vs 1561).
H2H favours Club Mercedes: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Argentino de Rosario	Club Mercedes
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.4	1.6 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.5	1.1 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.5	5.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.90

X2.70

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:59 +1’	2.90	2.70	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Argentino de Rosario 1–2–3 Club Mercedes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Mercedes	1-0 HT 0-0	Argentino de Rosario
27/07/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Club Mercedes	1-1 HT 1-0	Argentino de Rosario
24/02/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	Argentino de Rosario	2-0 HT 0-0	Club Mercedes
08/09/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	Argentino de Rosario	1-2 HT 1-1	Club Mercedes
03/06/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	Club Mercedes	1-1 HT 0-0	Argentino de Rosario
20/05/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana	Argentino de Rosario	2-4	Club Mercedes

Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sacachispas	22	11	5	6	27	16	38
2	Berazategui	22	9	9	4	24	15	36
3	CA Lugano	22	9	8	5	27	20	35
4	Club Mercedes	22	8	9	5	23	12	33
5	Puerto Nuevo	22	8	9	5	19	19	33
6	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn	22	8	8	6	23	20	32
7	Centro Espanol	22	8	7	7	27	20	31
8	Victoriano Arenas	22	7	10	5	18	13	31
9	Juventud Unida San Miguel	21	7	7	7	23	20	28
10	Club Leandro N. Alem	21	7	6	8	25	34	27
11	Defensores de Cambaceres	22	5	7	10	17	26	22
12	JJ Urquiza	22	3	12	7	9	18	21
13	Deportivo Paraguayo	22	4	8	10	12	27	20
14	Argentino de Rosario	22	2	12	8	20	28	18

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Argentino de Rosario	Club Mercedes
Deportivo Paraguayo	1-2 L	0-0 D
Puerto Nuevo	0-0 D	1-1 D
Club Leandro N. Alem	0-2 L	2-0 W
CA Lugano	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Club Mercedes (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Argentino de Rosario

WLLDDLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
26/07	Rosario Central Argentina Copa Santa Fe	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
23/07	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
17/07	Yupanqui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
12/07	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-2	0-2	2	8	L
04/07	Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	4	8	D
28/06	Union de Arroyo Seco Argentina Copa Santa Fe	1-0	2-2	2	6	D
27/06	Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
15/06	Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
06/06	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-1	4	8	W

Club Mercedes

WDDLWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	9	D
25/07	Berazategui Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
18/07	El Porvenir Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
12/07	Victoriano Arenas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
06/07	Centro Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	3-0	3	9	W
27/06	JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	4-0	5-0	1	6	W
14/06	CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
06/06	Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
30/05	Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
23/05	Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana	1-0	2-0	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Argentino de Rosario vs Club Mercedes?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Club Mercedes win (36%). Probabilities: Argentino de Rosario 31%, draw 33%, Club Mercedes 36%.

How many goals are expected in Argentino de Rosario vs Club Mercedes?

The model expects 2 goals (Argentino de Rosario 0.95 · Club Mercedes 1.05), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Argentino de Rosario vs Club Mercedes?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.