Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B · 06/08, 22:30

Prediction: Atletico FC Guayaquil vs CD Vargas Torres

Team pages: Atletico FC Guayaquil · CD Vargas Torres

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.68Total

Atletico FC Guayaquil1.2

CD Vargas Torres0.48

1X2

55% 30% 15%

Atletico FC Guayaquil Draw CD Vargas Torres

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 51% Not both to score 57%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico FC Guayaquil 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWLDWWDWDW

CD Vargas Torres 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDWLDLLD

Head-to-head

Atletico FC Guayaquil 0–1–0 CD Vargas Torres (1 last)

CD Vargas Torres1-1Atletico FC Guayaquil

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico FC Guayaquil 1546 · CD Vargas Torres 1466

	Atletico FC Guayaquil	Draw	CD Vargas Torres
Our model	53%	33%	14%
Market	56%	28%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 1.68 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico FC Guayaquil (rating 1546 vs 1466).
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico FC Guayaquil	CD Vargas Torres
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/44/22%	11/44/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.4	1.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.20

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 1.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.61▲	Bet365 1.61
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:43 +13’	1.60	3.20	5.50
00:24 +14’	1.61▲	3.20	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 2 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico FC Guayaquil 0–1–0 CD Vargas Torres

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	CD Vargas Torres	1-1 HT 1-0	Atletico FC Guayaquil

Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club 9 de Octubre	19	9	8	2	20	11	35
2	Independiente Juniors	19	9	7	3	23	13	34
3	Atletico FC Guayaquil	19	8	10	1	22	13	34
4	CD Cuenca Jrs	19	8	7	4	19	18	31
5	Vinotinto Ecuador	19	7	5	7	23	17	26
6	Cumbaya	19	5	9	5	19	16	24
7	San Antonio FC Cotacachi	19	5	9	5	21	20	24
8	LDU Portoviejo	19	6	4	9	15	22	22
9	CD Vargas Torres	19	5	8	6	13	13	20
10	Gualaceo SC	19	6	7	6	15	14	19
11	22 de Julio	19	4	3	12	10	26	9
12	El Nacional	19	1	5	13	13	30	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico FC Guayaquil	CD Vargas Torres
LDU Portoviejo	1-0 W	0-1 L
CD Cuenca Jrs	0-0 D	0-1 L
San Antonio FC Cotacachi	4-1 W	1-1 D
Independiente Juniors	0-0 D	1-0 W
El Nacional	3-0 W	0-0 D
22 de Julio	1-0 W	1-0 W
Club 9 de Octubre	0-0 D	0-0 D
Gualaceo SC	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico FC Guayaquil (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Atletico FC Guayaquil

DWLDWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
24/07	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
16/07	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-1	4-1	2	6	W
11/07	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
02/07	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	2-0	3-0	9	2	W
09/06	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/06	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
31/05	Vinotinto Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
22/05	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	2-1	2-1	2	3	W
15/05	CD Vargas Torres Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	1-1	1	2	D

CD Vargas Torres

DLWDWLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Club 9 de Octubre Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
25/07	LDU Portoviejo Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
17/07	CD Cuenca Jrs Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	11	4	L
11/07	San Antonio FC Cotacachi Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
09/07	Independiente del Valle Ecuador Cup	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
03/07	Independiente Juniors Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
11/06	El Nacional Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
06/06	22 de Julio Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	–	1-0	–	–	W
30/05	Gualaceo SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
23/05	Cumbaya Ecuador LigaPro Serie B	0-0	0-0	3	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico FC Guayaquil vs CD Vargas Torres?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico FC Guayaquil win (55%). Probabilities: Atletico FC Guayaquil 55%, draw 30%, CD Vargas Torres 15%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico FC Guayaquil vs CD Vargas Torres?

The model expects 1.68 goals (Atletico FC Guayaquil 1.2 · CD Vargas Torres 0.48), with a 59% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico FC Guayaquil vs CD Vargas Torres?

The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.