Prediction: Durham (W) vs Newcastle (W)
Team pages: Durham (W) · Newcastle (W)
- Newcastle (W)0-1Durham (W)
- Durham (W)1-1Newcastle (W)
- Durham (W)3-1Newcastle (W)
- Newcastle (W)0-1Durham (W)
| Durham (W) | Draw | Newcastle (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 20% | 69% |
| Market | 12% | 18% | 70% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newcastle (W) (rating 1423 vs 1510).
- H2H favours Durham (W): 3-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Durham (W) | Newcastle (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4 | 2 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Durham (W) 3–1–0 Newcastle (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 England FA WSL 2 | Newcastle (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Durham (W) |
| 09/11/25 England FA WSL 2 | Durham (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Newcastle (W) |
| 16/03/25 England Championship Women | Durham (W) | 3-1 HT 3-1 | Newcastle (W) |
| 06/10/24 England Championship Women | Newcastle (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Durham (W) |
Standings · England FA WSL 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle (W) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | Sunderland (W) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Ipswich Town (W) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Southampton (W) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton (W) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Nottm Forest (W) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | Leicester (W) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 8 | Bristol City (W) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| 9 | Sheff Utd (W) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| 10 | Burnley (W) | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| 11 | Watford (W) | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
| 12 | Durham (W) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Durham (W) | Newcastle (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Sheff Utd (W) | 1-4 L | 4-1 W |
| Nottm Forest (W) | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Leicester (W) | 2-4 L | 4-0 W |
| Bristol City (W) | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Newcastle (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Durham (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Sheff Utd (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 20/09 | Nottm Forest (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 13/09 | Leicester (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-3 | 2-4 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 06/09 | Southampton (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Newcastle (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | Sheff Utd (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 05/04 | Bristol City (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 29/03 | Nottm Forest (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 22/03 | Southampton (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 15/03 | Ipswich Town (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
Newcastle (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Leicester (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Sheff Utd (W) England FA WSL 2 |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 12/09 | Bristol City (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Wolverhampton (W) England FA WSL 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Durham (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 26/04 | Bristol City (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 05/04 | Nottm Forest (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 29/03 | Sunderland (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 22/03 | Crystal Palace (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 18/03 | Birmingham (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Durham (W) vs Newcastle (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Newcastle (W) win (70%). Probabilities: Durham (W) 11%, draw 19%, Newcastle (W) 70%.
How many goals are expected in Durham (W) vs Newcastle (W)?
The model expects 2.98 goals (Durham (W) 0.77 · Newcastle (W) 2.21), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Durham (W) vs Newcastle (W)?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.