Football · England FA WSL 2 · 04/10, 15:00
Prediction: Bristol City (W) vs Southampton (W)
Team pages: Bristol City (W) · Southampton (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Bristol City (W)1.45
Southampton (W)1.31
1X2
Bristol City (W)
Draw
Southampton (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Bristol City (W)
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Southampton (W)
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bristol City (W)
1–4–1
Southampton (W)
(6 last)
- Bristol City (W)0-2Southampton (W)
- Southampton (W)1-1Bristol City (W)
- Southampton (W)0-1Bristol City (W)
- Bristol City (W)0-0Southampton (W)
- Southampton (W)1-1Bristol City (W)
- Bristol City (W)1-1Southampton (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bristol City (W) 1502 · Southampton (W) 1540
| Bristol City (W) | Draw | Southampton (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market | 41% | 24% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bristol City (W) | Southampton (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.1 | 3.7 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.3 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bristol City (W) 1–4–1 Southampton (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/26 England FA WSL 2 | Bristol City (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Southampton (W) |
| 18/01/26 England FA Cup Women | Southampton (W) | 1-1 | Bristol City (W) |
| 21/09/25 England Championship Women | Southampton (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Bristol City (W) |
| 16/02/25 England Championship Women | Bristol City (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Southampton (W) |
| 08/09/24 England Championship Women | Southampton (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Bristol City (W) |
| 11/10/23 England League Cup Women | Bristol City (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Southampton (W) |
Standings · England FA WSL 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle (W) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | Sunderland (W) | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Ipswich Town (W) | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Southampton (W) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton (W) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Nottm Forest (W) | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | Leicester (W) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 8 | Bristol City (W) | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
| 9 | Sheff Utd (W) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| 10 | Burnley (W) | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| 11 | Watford (W) | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
| 12 | Durham (W) | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bristol City (W) | Southampton (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland (W) | 1-4 L | 0-0 D |
| Sheff Utd (W) | 4-0 W | 5-2 W |
| Durham (W) | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Birmingham (W) | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Charlton (W) | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bristol City (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Burnley (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 20/09 | Watford (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 12/09 | Newcastle (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Sunderland (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Sheff Utd (W) England FA WSL 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | Newcastle (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 05/04 | Durham (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 29/03 | Birmingham (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 22/03 | Charlton (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/03 | Portsmouth (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
Southampton (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Nottm Forest (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 20/09 | Sunderland (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 13/09 | Ipswich Town (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 06/09 | Durham (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Nottm Forest (W) England FA WSL 2 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Charlton (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 03/04 | Sheff Utd (W) England FA WSL 2 |
2-1 | 5-2 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 28/03 | Ipswich Town (W) England FA WSL 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 22/03 | Durham (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 15/03 | Birmingham (W) England FA WSL 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bristol City (W) vs Southampton (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bristol City (W) win (40%). Probabilities: Bristol City (W) 40%, draw 26%, Southampton (W) 34%.
How many goals are expected in Bristol City (W) vs Southampton (W)?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Bristol City (W) 1.45 · Southampton (W) 1.31), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Bristol City (W) vs Southampton (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.