Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 09/08, 19:00

Prediction: Benfica B vs Leixoes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Benfica B1.47

Leixoes1.19

1X2

42% 28% 30%

Benfica B Draw Leixoes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Benfica B 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWDLLWLLW

Leixoes 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Benfica B 1–4–1 Leixoes (6 last)

Leixoes0-0Benfica B
Benfica B1-1Leixoes
Benfica B4-0Leixoes
Leixoes2-1Benfica B
Benfica B1-1Leixoes
Leixoes1-1Benfica B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Benfica B 1487 · Leixoes 1566

	Benfica B	Draw	Leixoes
Our model	42%	28%	30%
Market	43%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leixoes (rating 1487 vs 1566).
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Benfica B	Leixoes
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	2.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 5.5	3.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.6	4.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.25

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.10▼	Bet365 2.10
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.88 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:53 +8’	2.20	3.25	2.88
23:58 +13’	2.10▼	3.25	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Benfica B 1–4–1 Leixoes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Portugal Segunda Liga	Leixoes	0-0 HT 0-0	Benfica B
17/08/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	Benfica B	1-1 HT 0-1	Leixoes
17/01/25 Portugal Segunda Liga	Benfica B	4-0 HT 2-0	Leixoes
10/08/24 Portugal Segunda Liga	Leixoes	2-1 HT 1-1	Benfica B
10/02/24 Portugal Segunda Liga	Benfica B	1-1 HT 1-0	Leixoes
03/09/23 Portugal Segunda Liga	Leixoes	1-1 HT 0-1	Benfica B

Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Academica	1	1	0	4	1	3
2	Tondela	1	1	0	2	1	3
3	Portimonense	1	1	0	1	0	3
4	AVS	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Feirense	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Felgueiras 1932	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FC Porto B	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Vizela	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Leixoes	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Lusitania Lourosa	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	SC Farense	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	SCU Torreense	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Benfica B	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Sporting B	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	UD Leiria	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Amarante	1	0	1	1	2	0
17	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	1	0
18	Chaves	1	0	1	1	4	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Benfica B	Leixoes
FC Porto B	0-2 L	3-0 W
Academico Viseu	0-2 L	1-3 L
Maritimo	1-2 L	2-3 L
UD Oliveirense	0-3 L	2-0 W
Pacos Ferreira	0-1 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Leixoes (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Benfica B

LWWDLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Atletico CP Lisbon Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
15/05	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-2	8	5	L
09/05	Academico Viseu Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	0-2	7	6	L
01/05	Sporting B Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-0	3	11	W
26/04	Maritimo Portugal Segunda Liga	0-2	1-2	5	8	L
22/04	UD Oliveirense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
11/04	UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga	0-1	2-2	12	4	D
07/04	Vizela Portugal Segunda Liga	2-0	2-1	6	8	W
22/03	SC Farense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
14/03	Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L

Leixoes

LWDWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Casa Pia Europe Friendlies	3-2	6-2	3	3	W
17/05	Lusitania Lourosa Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-1	8	6	W
09/05	Chaves Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
01/05	Maritimo Portugal Segunda Liga	1-2	2-3	1	8	L
25/04	Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	2-0	11	4	W
20/04	FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga	3-0	3-0	2	5	W
12/04	UD Oliveirense Portugal Segunda Liga	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
06/04	SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
22/03	Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga	1-2	3-2	6	4	W
14/03	Academico Viseu Portugal Segunda Liga	1-1	1-3	1	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Benfica B vs Leixoes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Benfica B win (42%). Probabilities: Benfica B 42%, draw 28%, Leixoes 30%.

How many goals are expected in Benfica B vs Leixoes?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Benfica B 1.47 · Leixoes 1.19), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Benfica B vs Leixoes?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.