Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 16/08, 15:00
Prediction: Amarante vs Lusitania Lourosa
Team pages: Amarante · Lusitania Lourosa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.24Total
Amarante1.11
Lusitania Lourosa1.13
1X2
Amarante
Draw
Lusitania Lourosa
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Amarante
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Lusitania Lourosa
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Amarante
1–2–3
Lusitania Lourosa
(6 last)
- Amarante1-1Lusitania Lourosa
- Lusitania Lourosa2-1Amarante
- Lusitania Lourosa1-0Amarante
- Amarante1-0Lusitania Lourosa
- Amarante0-0Lusitania Lourosa
- Lusitania Lourosa1-0Amarante
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Amarante 1523 · Lusitania Lourosa 1484
| Amarante | Draw | Lusitania Lourosa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 31% | 35% |
| Market | 35% | 29% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Lusitania Lourosa: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Amarante | Lusitania Lourosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1 | 1.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 3.8 | 2.6 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.2 | 4.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Amarante 1–2–3 Lusitania Lourosa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/25 Portugal Liga 3 | Amarante | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Lusitania Lourosa |
| 01/03/25 Portugal Liga 3 | Lusitania Lourosa | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Amarante |
| 04/01/25 Portugal Liga 3 | Lusitania Lourosa | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Amarante |
| 14/09/24 Portugal Liga 3 | Amarante | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Lusitania Lourosa |
| 20/05/23 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | Amarante | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Lusitania Lourosa |
| 30/04/23 Portugal Campeonato Nacional | Lusitania Lourosa | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Amarante |
Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Lusitania Lourosa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Tondela | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | SC Farense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Vizela | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Portimonense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Benfica B | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Sporting B | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Feirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Felgueiras 1932 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Amarante | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | SCU Torreense | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | AVS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Penafiel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Leixoes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | UD Leiria | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | FC Porto B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Chaves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Amarante
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Tondela Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | Moreirense Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Guimaraes B Portugal Liga 3 |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | UD Santarem Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | Trofense Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | CF Os Belenenses Portugal Liga 3 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | CD Mafra Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Academica Portugal Liga 3 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 04/04 | Varzim Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 29/03 | Academica Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
Lusitania Lourosa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 01/08 | Paredes Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 29/07 | Leca Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 17/05 | Leixoes Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | UD Oliveirense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 19/04 | Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 2-3 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 13/04 | FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 05/04 | UD Leiria Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Amarante vs Lusitania Lourosa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Amarante win (35%). Probabilities: Amarante 35%, draw 30%, Lusitania Lourosa 35%.
How many goals are expected in Amarante vs Lusitania Lourosa?
The model expects 2.24 goals (Amarante 1.11 · Lusitania Lourosa 1.13), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Amarante vs Lusitania Lourosa?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.