Football · Portugal Segunda Liga · 16/08, 16:30
Prediction: Leixoes vs Tondela
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.82Total
Leixoes1.42
Tondela1.39
1X2
Leixoes
Draw
Tondela
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Leixoes
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Tondela
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Leixoes
1–2–3
Tondela
(6 last)
- Leixoes0-1Tondela
- Tondela2-1Leixoes
- Leixoes1-1Tondela
- Tondela4-2Leixoes
- Tondela2-3Leixoes
- Leixoes1-1Tondela
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Leixoes 1560 · Tondela 1470
| Leixoes | Draw | Tondela | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market | 37% | 28% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leixoes (rating 1560 vs 1470).
- H2H favours Tondela: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Leixoes | Tondela | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 33/44/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.2 | 1.8 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.4 | 5.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Leixoes 1–2–3 Tondela
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/25 Portugal Segunda Liga | Leixoes | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Tondela |
| 12/10/24 Portugal Segunda Liga | Tondela | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Leixoes |
| 03/03/24 Portugal Segunda Liga | Leixoes | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Tondela |
| 07/10/23 Portugal Segunda Liga | Tondela | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Leixoes |
| 08/04/23 Portugal Segunda Liga | Tondela | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Leixoes |
| 24/10/22 Portugal Segunda Liga | Leixoes | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Tondela |
Standings · Portugal Segunda Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Lusitania Lourosa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Tondela | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | SC Farense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Vizela | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Portimonense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Benfica B | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Sporting B | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Feirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Felgueiras 1932 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Amarante | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | SCU Torreense | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | AVS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Penafiel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Leixoes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | UD Leiria | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | FC Porto B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Chaves | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leixoes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Benfica B Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 01/08 | Casa Pia Europe Friendlies |
3-2 | 6-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Lusitania Lourosa Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | Chaves Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 01/05 | Maritimo Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 25/04 | Portimonense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 20/04 | FC Porto B Portugal Segunda Liga |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | UD Oliveirense Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 06/04 | SCU Torreense Portugal Segunda Liga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 22/03 | Pacos Ferreira Portugal Segunda Liga |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
Tondela
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Amarante Portugal Segunda Liga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 01/08 | Rio Ave Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Famalicao Club Friendly List |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Arouca Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 11/05 | Moreirense Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Casa Pia Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 12 | W |
| 29/04 | Sporting Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Nacional Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | FC Porto Portugal Primeira Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 13/04 | Gil Vicente Portugal Primeira Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leixoes vs Tondela?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Leixoes win (37%). Probabilities: Leixoes 37%, draw 28%, Tondela 35%.
How many goals are expected in Leixoes vs Tondela?
The model expects 2.82 goals (Leixoes 1.42 · Tondela 1.39), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Leixoes vs Tondela?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.