Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2 · 01/11, 19:00

Prediction: 7 de Abril vs Cardoso Moreira

Team pages: 7 de Abril

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

7 de Abril1.37

Cardoso Moreira1.57

1X2

32% 26% 41%

7 de Abril Draw Cardoso Moreira

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

7 de Abril 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Cardoso Moreira 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · 7 de Abril 1512 · Cardoso Moreira 1542

	7 de Abril	Draw	Cardoso Moreira
Our model	32%	27%	41%
Market	33%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	7 de Abril	Cardoso Moreira
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/33/22%	11/67/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.3	1.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.8	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.50

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:36 +3’	2.75	3.50	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Friburguense	10	7	3	0	23	9	24
2	Santa Cruz RJ	10	7	0	3	13	9	21
3	Serra Macaense	10	6	2	2	22	11	20
4	Cardoso Moreira	10	5	3	2	18	9	18
5	SE Belford Roxo	10	4	5	1	21	11	17
6	7 de Abril	10	5	1	4	16	16	16
7	Paduano EC	10	4	3	3	17	11	15
8	Campos RJ	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
9	FC Rio de Janeiro	10	3	1	6	11	15	10
10	Barra Mansa	10	1	4	5	7	15	7
11	Buzios	10	2	0	8	10	25	6
12	Paraty	10	0	0	10	7	34	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	7 de Abril	Cardoso Moreira
FC Rio de Janeiro	2-0 W	1-0 W
Buzios	4-1 W	3-0 W
Paduano EC	0-5 L	1-0 W
SE Belford Roxo	0-2 L	2-1 W
Friburguense	1-2 L	3-3 D
Campos RJ	2-1 W	0-0 D
Paraty	1-0 W	6-1 W
Barra Mansa	4-1 W	0-0 D
Serra Macaense	2-2 D	2-3 L
Santa Cruz RJ	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cardoso Moreira (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

7 de Abril

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	FC Rio de Janeiro Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-0	2-0	7	9	W
18/10	Buzios Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	3-1	4-1	8	5	W
11/10	Paduano EC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	–	0-5	–	–	L
06/10	SE Belford Roxo Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
02/10	Friburguense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-2	1-2	6	5	L
27/09	Campos RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
21/09	Paraty Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	1-0	6	10	W
14/09	Barra Mansa Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-1	4-1	4	7	W
07/09	Serra Macaense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
30/08	Santa Cruz RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	0-2	4	5	L

Cardoso Moreira

WWWWLLDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Friburguense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-2	3-3	2	8	D
18/10	Campos RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
11/10	Paraty Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	3-1	6-1	7	0	W
05/10	Barra Mansa Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
01/10	Serra Macaense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-2	2-3	4	8	L
27/09	Santa Cruz RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
20/09	SE Belford Roxo Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
13/09	FC Rio de Janeiro Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
06/09	Buzios Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	3-0	5	6	W
30/08	Paduano EC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in 7 de Abril vs Cardoso Moreira?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cardoso Moreira win (41%). Probabilities: 7 de Abril 32%, draw 26%, Cardoso Moreira 41%.

How many goals are expected in 7 de Abril vs Cardoso Moreira?

The model expects 2.94 goals (7 de Abril 1.37 · Cardoso Moreira 1.57), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in 7 de Abril vs Cardoso Moreira?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.