Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2 · 01/11, 19:00

Prediction: Friburguense vs Santa Cruz RJ

Team pages: Santa Cruz RJ

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Friburguense1.65

Santa Cruz RJ1

1X2

52% 25% 22%

Friburguense Draw Santa Cruz RJ

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Friburguense 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWWWWD

Santa Cruz RJ 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLLWWW

Head-to-head

Friburguense 1–0 Santa Cruz RJ (1 last)

Friburguense6-2Santa Cruz RJ

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Friburguense 1587 · Santa Cruz RJ 1542

	Friburguense	Draw	Santa Cruz RJ
Our model	51%	27%	22%
Market	53%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Friburguense (rating 1587 vs 1542).
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Friburguense	Santa Cruz RJ
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.9	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/33/0%	38/50/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 3.6	2.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.70

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:32 +6’	1.70	3.70	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Friburguense 1–0–0 Santa Cruz RJ

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/18 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Friburguense	6-2 HT 1-0	Santa Cruz RJ

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Friburguense	10	7	3	0	23	9	24
2	Santa Cruz RJ	10	7	0	3	13	9	21
3	Serra Macaense	10	6	2	2	22	11	20
4	Cardoso Moreira	10	5	3	2	18	9	18
5	SE Belford Roxo	10	4	5	1	21	11	17
6	7 de Abril	10	5	1	4	16	16	16
7	Paduano EC	10	4	3	3	17	11	15
8	Campos RJ	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
9	FC Rio de Janeiro	10	3	1	6	11	15	10
10	Barra Mansa	10	1	4	5	7	15	7
11	Buzios	10	2	0	8	10	25	6
12	Paraty	10	0	0	10	7	34	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Friburguense	Santa Cruz RJ
Cardoso Moreira	3-3 D	1-0 W
FC Rio de Janeiro	5-0 W	3-1 W
Buzios	3-2 W	3-0 W
Paduano EC	1-0 W	0-1 L
7 de Abril	2-1 W	2-0 W
SE Belford Roxo	2-2 D	0-3 L
Campos RJ	2-0 W	2-1 W
Paraty	4-1 W	1-0 W
Barra Mansa	0-0 D	1-0 W
Serra Macaense	1-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	7 W 3 D 0 L	7 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Friburguense (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Friburguense

WDWWDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Cardoso Moreira Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-2	3-3	2	8	D
18/10	FC Rio de Janeiro Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-0	5-0	2	7	W
11/10	Buzios Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-1	3-2	6	6	W
06/10	Paduano EC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
02/10	7 de Abril Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
27/09	SE Belford Roxo Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	–	2-2	–	–	D
20/09	Campos RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
13/09	Paraty Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-0	4-1	2	2	W
06/09	Barra Mansa Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
30/08	Serra Macaense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-0	1-0	1	6	W

Santa Cruz RJ

WLWWWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Campos RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	–	2-1	–	–	W
19/10	Paraty Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-0	1-0	8	9	W
12/10	Barra Mansa Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
05/10	Serra Macaense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	0-3	5	5	L
01/10	SE Belford Roxo Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
27/09	Cardoso Moreira Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
21/09	FC Rio de Janeiro Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	3-1	3-1	2	4	W
13/09	Buzios Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
06/09	Paduano EC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	–	0-1	–	–	L
30/08	7 de Abril Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	2-0	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Friburguense vs Santa Cruz RJ?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Friburguense win (52%). Probabilities: Friburguense 52%, draw 25%, Santa Cruz RJ 22%.

How many goals are expected in Friburguense vs Santa Cruz RJ?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Friburguense 1.65 · Santa Cruz RJ 1), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Friburguense vs Santa Cruz RJ?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.