Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2 · 01/11, 19:00

Prediction: Campos RJ vs Serra Macaense

Team pages: Serra Macaense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Campos RJ1.01

Serra Macaense1.64

1X2

22% 27% 51%

Campos RJ Draw Serra Macaense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Campos RJ 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLLDWWDL

Serra Macaense 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLDLWWWDWW

Head-to-head

Campos RJ 2–1–0 Serra Macaense (3 last)

Serra Macaense1-2Campos RJ
Campos RJ0-0Serra Macaense
Campos RJ1-0Serra Macaense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Campos RJ 1503 · Serra Macaense 1532

	Campos RJ	Draw	Serra Macaense
Our model	22%	27%	51%
Market	22%	26%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Campos RJ: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Campos RJ	Serra Macaense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/57/43%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.3	1.4 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0.9	5 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.40

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.70 → 1.75▲	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:25 +14’	4.20	3.40	1.70
08:00 +14’	4.00▼	3.40	1.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Campos RJ 2–1–0 Serra Macaense

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/19 Brazil Copa Rio	Serra Macaense	1-2 HT 1-1	Campos RJ
19/06/19 Brazil Copa Rio	Campos RJ	0-0 HT 0-0	Serra Macaense
01/06/19 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Campos RJ	1-0 HT 0-0	Serra Macaense

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Friburguense	10	7	3	0	23	9	24
2	Santa Cruz RJ	10	7	0	3	13	9	21
3	Serra Macaense	10	6	2	2	22	11	20
4	Cardoso Moreira	10	5	3	2	18	9	18
5	SE Belford Roxo	10	4	5	1	21	11	17
6	7 de Abril	10	5	1	4	16	16	16
7	Paduano EC	10	4	3	3	17	11	15
8	Campos RJ	10	3	4	3	13	13	13
9	FC Rio de Janeiro	10	3	1	6	11	15	10
10	Barra Mansa	10	1	4	5	7	15	7
11	Buzios	10	2	0	8	10	25	6
12	Paraty	10	0	0	10	7	34	0

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Campos RJ	Serra Macaense
Santa Cruz RJ	1-2 L	3-0 W
Cardoso Moreira	0-0 D	3-2 W
FC Rio de Janeiro	1-0 W	2-1 W
Paduano EC	1-1 D	1-2 L
7 de Abril	1-2 L	2-2 D
Friburguense	0-2 L	0-1 L
SE Belford Roxo	2-2 D	1-1 D
Paraty	2-1 W	6-2 W
Barra Mansa	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 3 L	5 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Serra Macaense (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Campos RJ

DWDLLDWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Santa Cruz RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/10	Cardoso Moreira Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
11/10	FC Rio de Janeiro Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	1-0	3	9	W
05/10	Buzios Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-1	3-1	7	4	W
01/10	Paduano EC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	–	1-1	–	–	D
27/09	7 de Abril Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-2	1-2	6	6	L
20/09	Friburguense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-1	0-2	1	7	L
13/09	SE Belford Roxo Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/09	Paraty Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	2-1	4	8	W
31/08	Barra Mansa Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-2	2-2	5	8	D

Serra Macaense

LLDLWWWDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Paraty Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-0	6-2	7	2	W
18/10	Barra Mansa Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	1-0	4	9	W
11/10	SE Belford Roxo Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
05/10	Santa Cruz RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	3-0	3	5	W
01/10	Cardoso Moreira Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-1	3-2	0	8	W
27/09	FC Rio de Janeiro Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-0	2-1	7	4	W
13/09	Paduano EC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
07/09	7 de Abril Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
30/08	Friburguense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-1	0-1	0	6	L
09/11	SE Belford Roxo Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-1	0-2	2	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Campos RJ vs Serra Macaense?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Serra Macaense win (51%). Probabilities: Campos RJ 22%, draw 27%, Serra Macaense 51%.

How many goals are expected in Campos RJ vs Serra Macaense?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Campos RJ 1.01 · Serra Macaense 1.64), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Campos RJ vs Serra Macaense?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.