Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: Zira IK vs Shamakhi FK

Team pages: Zira IK · Shamakhi FK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Zira IK1.43

Shamakhi FK1.05

1X2

45% 29% 26%

Zira IK Draw Shamakhi FK

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Zira IK 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWWLDL

Shamakhi FK 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLLDDWDW

Head-to-head

Zira IK 4–1–1 Shamakhi FK (6 last)

Zira IK1-1Shamakhi FK
Shamakhi FK2-1Zira IK
Zira IK2-1Shamakhi FK
Zira IK3-0Shamakhi FK
Shamakhi FK1-2Zira IK
Zira IK3-1Shamakhi FK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zira IK 1523 · Shamakhi FK 1505

	Zira IK	Draw	Shamakhi FK
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Zira IK: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zira IK	Shamakhi FK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 5.1	2.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
05:29 +3’	2.00	3.10	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zira IK 4–1–1 Shamakhi FK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/04/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	Zira IK	1-1 HT 0-0	Shamakhi FK
13/12/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Shamakhi FK	2-1 HT 0-1	Zira IK
19/09/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Zira IK	2-1 HT 0-1	Shamakhi FK
30/03/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Zira IK	3-0 HT 0-0	Shamakhi FK
24/01/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Shamakhi FK	1-2 HT 1-1	Zira IK
09/01/25 Europe Friendlies	Zira IK	3-1 HT 0-1	Shamakhi FK

Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Baku	6	5	0	1	18	5	15
2	Sabah	5	5	0	0	14	1	15
3	FK Qarabag	5	4	1	0	9	4	13
4	PFK Turan Tovuz	6	3	2	1	6	4	11
5	Zira IK	6	3	1	2	7	8	10
6	FK Kapaz	4	2	0	2	3	6	6
7	Shamakhi FK	5	1	3	1	6	5	6
8	Imisli	6	1	1	4	6	11	4
9	FK Gabala	6	1	1	4	2	7	4
10	Safa Baku	6	1	0	5	2	11	3
11	Araz FK	5	0	2	3	4	11	2
12	FK Sumqayit	4	0	1	3	3	7	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zira IK	Shamakhi FK
PFK Turan Tovuz	0-1 L	0-0 D
FK Qarabag	1-1 D	1-3 L
Sabah	0-5 L	0-3 L
Neftchi Baku	1-0 W	0-3 L
Araz FK	2-3 L	2-1 W
FK Sumqayit	2-1 W	1-1 D
FK Gabala	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Zira IK (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zira IK

WDWLWWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
13/09	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
30/08	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
22/08	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
16/08	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
23/05	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-2	2-3	7	3	L
17/05	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	2-1	11	3	W
08/05	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
03/05	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	3	W

Shamakhi FK

LLWLLDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	2-1	2-1	4	8	W
12/09	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
04/09	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	4-1	5	10	W
29/08	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
23/08	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
17/08	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
21/05	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	1-3	1-3	3	3	L
16/05	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	3-2	4	6	W
10/05	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-3	1	5	L
03/05	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-3	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zira IK vs Shamakhi FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zira IK win (45%). Probabilities: Zira IK 45%, draw 29%, Shamakhi FK 26%.

How many goals are expected in Zira IK vs Shamakhi FK?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Zira IK 1.43 · Shamakhi FK 1.05), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Zira IK vs Shamakhi FK?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.