Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 09/10, 17:30

Prediction: Neftchi Baku vs Sabah

Team pages: Neftchi Baku · Sabah

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Neftchi Baku1.35

Sabah1.47

1X2

33% 28% 39%

Neftchi Baku Draw Sabah

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Neftchi Baku 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

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Sabah 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Neftchi Baku 1–2–3 Sabah (6 last)

Sabah1-2Neftchi Baku
Sabah2-0Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku0-0Sabah
Sabah1-0Neftchi Baku
Sabah1-1Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku1-2Sabah

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Neftchi Baku 1596 · Sabah 1573

	Neftchi Baku	Draw	Sabah
Our model	33%	27%	39%
Market	33%	28%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sabah: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Neftchi Baku	Sabah
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 0.6	2.2 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	1 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.3	3.7 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.4	2.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.25

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.86 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.31

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:44 +9’	2.70	3.25	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:33 +79’	2.86	3.24	2.31

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Neftchi Baku 1–2–3 Sabah

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	Sabah	1-2 HT 1-1	Neftchi Baku
08/12/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Sabah	2-0 HT 0-0	Neftchi Baku
14/09/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Neftchi Baku	0-0 HT 0-0	Sabah
24/05/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Sabah	1-0 HT 0-0	Neftchi Baku
23/04/25 Azerbaijan Cup	Sabah	1-1 HT 1-1	Neftchi Baku
02/04/25 Azerbaijan Cup	Neftchi Baku	1-2 HT 1-1	Sabah

Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Baku	6	5	0	1	18	5	15
2	Sabah	5	5	0	0	14	1	15
3	FK Qarabag	5	4	1	0	9	4	13
4	PFK Turan Tovuz	6	3	2	1	6	4	11
5	Zira IK	6	3	1	2	7	8	10
6	FK Kapaz	4	2	0	2	3	6	6
7	Shamakhi FK	5	1	3	1	6	5	6
8	Imisli	6	1	1	4	6	11	4
9	FK Gabala	6	1	1	4	2	7	4
10	Safa Baku	6	1	0	5	2	11	3
11	Araz FK	5	0	2	3	4	11	2
12	FK Sumqayit	4	0	1	3	3	7	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Neftchi Baku	Sabah
Imisli	3-2 W	3-1 W
Safa Baku	4-1 W	3-0 W
Zira IK	0-1 L	5-0 W
Araz FK	5-0 W	1-0 W
FK Kapaz	1-0 W	2-0 W
Shamakhi FK	3-0 W	3-0 W
FK Karvan	3-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	7 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sabah (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Neftchi Baku

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
11/09	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	2-2	3-2	7	1	W
05/09	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	4-1	6	2	W
30/08	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
23/08	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	4-0	5-0	4	4	W
16/08	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	3-1	2	6	W
23/05	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
17/05	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
10/05	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
05/05	FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-0	10	3	W

Sabah

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	3-1	3	7	W
14/09	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	3-0	6	0	W
05/09	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	3-0	5-0	1	3	W
31/08	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-0	10	0	W
15/08	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
22/05	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
17/05	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	2	L
08/05	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	10	4	L
03/05	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-0	8	3	W
27/04	FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	2-0	10	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Neftchi Baku vs Sabah?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sabah win (39%). Probabilities: Neftchi Baku 33%, draw 28%, Sabah 39%.

How many goals are expected in Neftchi Baku vs Sabah?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Neftchi Baku 1.35 · Sabah 1.47), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Neftchi Baku vs Sabah?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.