Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 17/08, 20:30
Prediction: Samsunspor vs Goztepe
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.5Total
Samsunspor1.41
Goztepe1.09
1X2
Samsunspor
Draw
Goztepe
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Samsunspor
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Goztepe
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Samsunspor
3–1–2
Goztepe
(6 last)
- Samsunspor3-0Goztepe
- Goztepe2-0Samsunspor
- Goztepe2-2Samsunspor
- Samsunspor4-3Goztepe
- Goztepe1-0Samsunspor
- Samsunspor1-0Goztepe
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Samsunspor 1530 · Goztepe 1591
| Samsunspor | Draw | Goztepe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Goztepe (rating 1530 vs 1591).
- H2H favours Samsunspor: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Samsunspor | Goztepe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 80/10/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.1 | 1.2 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.3 | 3.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Samsunspor 3–1–2 Goztepe
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Türkiye Super Lig | Samsunspor | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Goztepe |
| 21/12/25 Türkiye Super Lig | Goztepe | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Samsunspor |
| 03/03/25 Türkiye Super Lig | Goztepe | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Samsunspor |
| 28/09/24 Türkiye Super Lig | Samsunspor | 4-3 HT 1-2 | Goztepe |
| 07/04/23 Türkiye 1 Lig | Goztepe | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Samsunspor |
| 06/11/22 Türkiye 1 Lig | Samsunspor | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Goztepe |
Standings · Türkiye Super Lig
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alanyaspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Amedspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Besiktas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Caykur Rizespor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Corum Belediyespor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Erzurumspor FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Eyupspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Fenerbahce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Galatasaray | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Genclerbirligi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Goztepe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kasimpasa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kocaelispor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Konyaspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Samsunspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Trabzonspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Samsunspor
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Kasimpasa Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 01/08 | Westerlo Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 29/07 | AEK Athens Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | RAAL La Louviere Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 22/07 | Dunkerque Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | Alanyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 23/04 | Trabzonspor Türkiye Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 9 | D |
Goztepe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Trabzonspor Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | NK Rudes Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 23/07 | FC Zorya Lugansk Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 19/07 | Al Dhafra SCC World Club Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 16/07 | LNZ Lebedyn Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 13/07 | HNK Gorica Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Samsunspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Trabzonspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 10 | D |
| 25/04 | Antalyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Samsunspor vs Goztepe?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Samsunspor win (43%). Probabilities: Samsunspor 43%, draw 29%, Goztepe 28%.
How many goals are expected in Samsunspor vs Goztepe?
The model expects 2.5 goals (Samsunspor 1.41 · Goztepe 1.09), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Goztepe?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.