Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 16/08, 20:30

Prediction: Amedspor vs Erzurumspor FK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Amedspor1.57

Erzurumspor FK1.34

1X2

42% 27% 32%

Amedspor Draw Erzurumspor FK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Amedspor 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDLDDW

Erzurumspor FK 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWDDD

Head-to-head

Amedspor 0–2–4 Erzurumspor FK (6 last)

Erzurumspor FK2-0Amedspor
Amedspor2-2Erzurumspor FK
Amedspor1-2Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK2-0Amedspor
Amedspor1-1Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK1-0Amedspor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Amedspor 1543 · Erzurumspor FK 1573

	Amedspor	Draw	Erzurumspor FK
Our model	42%	27%	32%
Market	42%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Erzurumspor FK: 4-2-0.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Amedspor	Erzurumspor FK
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1	2.2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 8.6	1.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.40

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.35 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.50
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:49	2.20	3.40	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:49	2.35	3.50	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Amedspor 0–2–4 Erzurumspor FK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Türkiye 1 Lig	Erzurumspor FK	2-0 HT 0-0	Amedspor
18/08/25 Türkiye 1 Lig	Amedspor	2-2 HT 1-1	Erzurumspor FK
16/03/25 Türkiye 1 Lig	Amedspor	1-2 HT 0-1	Erzurumspor FK
03/11/24 Türkiye 1 Lig	Erzurumspor FK	2-0 HT 1-0	Amedspor
16/05/17 Türkiye 2.Lig Play-offs	Amedspor	1-1 HT 1-0	Erzurumspor FK
12/05/17 Türkiye 2.Lig Play-offs	Erzurumspor FK	1-0 HT 1-0	Amedspor

Standings · Türkiye Super Lig

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alanyaspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Amedspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Besiktas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Caykur Rizespor	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Corum Belediyespor	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Erzurumspor FK	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Eyupspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fenerbahce	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Galatasaray	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gazisehir Gaziantep FK	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Genclerbirligi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Goztepe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Istanbul Basaksehir	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kasimpasa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kocaelispor	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Konyaspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Samsunspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Amedspor	Erzurumspor FK
76 Igdir Belediyespor	3-3 D	2-1 W
Bodrum FK	1-1 D	1-1 D
Bandirmaspor	0-2 L	1-1 D
Umraniyespor	2-2 D	1-3 L
Esenler Erokspor	1-1 D	2-0 W
Boluspor	6-1 W	2-0 W
Hatayspor	3-0 W	3-0 W
Manisa BBSK	2-0 W	8-1 W
Istanbulspor	4-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 4 D 1 L	6 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Erzurumspor FK (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Amedspor

WWWWDDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Dinamo Batumi Club Friendly List	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
02/05	76 Igdir Belediyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-2	3-3	4	8	D
26/04	Bodrum FK Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-1	12	7	D
19/04	Bandirmaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	0-2	10	6	L
13/04	Umraniyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-1	2-2	10	3	D
09/04	Esenler Erokspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
05/04	Boluspor Türkiye 1 Lig	3-0	6-1	10	4	W
22/03	Hatayspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
15/03	Manisa BBSK Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	2-0	17	8	W
11/03	Istanbulspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-0	4-0	7	2	W

Erzurumspor FK

WLWWWWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/05	Corum Belediyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
26/04	Bandirmaspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
19/04	Bodrum FK Türkiye 1 Lig	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
13/04	Boluspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-0	2-0	6	0	W
09/04	Istanbulspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
04/04	76 Igdir Belediyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
22/03	Esenler Erokspor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	2-0	1	4	W
15/03	Hatayspor Türkiye 1 Lig	2-0	3-0	9	4	W
11/03	Umraniyespor Türkiye 1 Lig	0-0	1-3	3	1	L
07/03	Manisa BBSK Türkiye 1 Lig	5-0	8-1	8	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Amedspor vs Erzurumspor FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Amedspor win (42%). Probabilities: Amedspor 42%, draw 27%, Erzurumspor FK 32%.

How many goals are expected in Amedspor vs Erzurumspor FK?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Amedspor 1.57 · Erzurumspor FK 1.34), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Amedspor vs Erzurumspor FK?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.