Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 15/08, 20:30
Prediction: Genclerbirligi vs Fenerbahce
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.02Total
Genclerbirligi0.97
Fenerbahce2.05
1X2
Genclerbirligi
Draw
Fenerbahce
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Genclerbirligi
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Fenerbahce
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Genclerbirligi
1–1–4
Fenerbahce
(6 last)
- Fenerbahce3-1Genclerbirligi
- Genclerbirligi1-3Fenerbahce
- Fenerbahce1-2Genclerbirligi
- Genclerbirligi1-5Fenerbahce
- Genclerbirligi1-1Fenerbahce
- Fenerbahce5-2Genclerbirligi
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Genclerbirligi 1473 · Fenerbahce 1624
| Genclerbirligi | Draw | Fenerbahce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 16% | 23% | 61% |
| Market | 17% | 21% | 62% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fenerbahce (rating 1473 vs 1624).
- H2H favours Fenerbahce: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Genclerbirligi | Fenerbahce | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 2.4 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.1 | 2.3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Genclerbirligi 1–1–4 Fenerbahce
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/26 Türkiye Super Lig | Fenerbahce | 3-1 HT 3-0 | Genclerbirligi |
| 31/08/25 Türkiye Super Lig | Genclerbirligi | 1-3 HT 0-3 | Fenerbahce |
| 14/03/21 Türkiye Super Lig | Fenerbahce | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Genclerbirligi |
| 21/11/20 Türkiye Super Lig | Genclerbirligi | 1-5 HT 1-2 | Fenerbahce |
| 07/07/20 Türkiye Super Lig | Genclerbirligi | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Fenerbahce |
| 06/12/19 Türkiye Super Lig | Fenerbahce | 5-2 HT 3-1 | Genclerbirligi |
Standings · Türkiye Super Lig
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alanyaspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Amedspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Besiktas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Caykur Rizespor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Corum Belediyespor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Erzurumspor FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Eyupspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Fenerbahce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Galatasaray | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Genclerbirligi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Goztepe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kasimpasa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kocaelispor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Konyaspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Samsunspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Trabzonspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Genclerbirligi | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 2-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | 0-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Konyaspor | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Fenerbahce (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Genclerbirligi
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05 | Trabzonspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/05 | Trabzonspor Türkiye Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 09/05 | Kasimpasa Türkiye Super Lig |
2-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 13 | W |
| 03/05 | Fatih Karagumruk Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Kocaelispor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 22/04 | Galatasaray Türkiye Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 11/04 | Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 19/03 | Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
Fenerbahce
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08 | SK Sturm Graz UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 29/07 | Gornik Zabrze UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 21/07 | Gornik Zabrze UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 14/07 | LASK Linz Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 11/07 | Pogon Szczecin Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 08/07 | Admira Wacker Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-2 | 3-3 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 09/05 | Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 11 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Genclerbirligi vs Fenerbahce?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Fenerbahce win (62%). Probabilities: Genclerbirligi 16%, draw 22%, Fenerbahce 62%.
How many goals are expected in Genclerbirligi vs Fenerbahce?
The model expects 3.02 goals (Genclerbirligi 0.97 · Fenerbahce 2.05), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Genclerbirligi vs Fenerbahce?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.