Football · Spain Segunda · 17/08, 21:30
Prediction: Almeria vs Eldense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Almeria2.01
Eldense0.62
1X2
Almeria
Draw
Eldense
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Almeria
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Eldense
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Almeria
1–2
Eldense
(3 last)
- Eldense2-1Almeria
- Almeria5-0Eldense
- Eldense1-0Almeria
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Almeria 1533 · Eldense 1471
| Almeria | Draw | Eldense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 21% | 10% |
| Market | 70% | 20% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Almeria (rating 1533 vs 1471).
- H2H favours Eldense: 2-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Almeria | Eldense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.2 | 0.9 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.6 | 2.4 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.2 | 3.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Almeria 1–0–2 Eldense
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12/25 Spain Copa del Rey | Eldense | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Almeria |
| 04/05/25 Spain Segunda | Almeria | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Eldense |
| 08/09/24 Spain Segunda | Eldense | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Almeria |
Standings · Spain Segunda
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AD Ceuta FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Albacete | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cadiz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CD Castellon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Eldense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Leganes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tenerife | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sabadell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Burgos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cordoba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Andorra | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Girona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Granada | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Celta Fortuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mallorca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Oviedo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Real Sociedad B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Valladolid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Eibar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sporting Gijon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Almeria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Las Palmas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Almeria
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Cordoba Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 4-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 04/08 | Al-Nassr Riyadh World Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Real Betis Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 29/07 | Granada Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Aguilas Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | Malaga Spain Segunda |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Malaga Spain Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 09/06 | CD Castellon Spain Segunda |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | CD Castellon Spain Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | Valladolid Spain Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
Eldense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | FC Cartagena Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 07/08 | Albacete Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 04/08 | Villarreal B Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 01/08 | Real Murcia Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Al Ittifaq Dammam World Club Friendlies |
3-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 22/07 | Valencia Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 17/07 | Millwall Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Real Murcia Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Atletico Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 10/05 | Sevilla Atletico Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Almeria vs Eldense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Almeria win (70%). Probabilities: Almeria 70%, draw 21%, Eldense 10%.
How many goals are expected in Almeria vs Eldense?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Almeria 2.01 · Eldense 0.62), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Eldense?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.