Football · Spain Segunda · 23/08, 19:00

Prediction: Sporting Gijon vs Burgos

Team pages: Sporting Gijon · Burgos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Sporting Gijon1.29

Burgos1.07

1X2

40% 32% 29%

Sporting Gijon Draw Burgos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting Gijon 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLWWWD

Burgos 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWLDDDWWWW

Head-to-head

Sporting Gijon 3–3 Burgos (6 last)

Burgos1-0Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon2-3Burgos
Sporting Gijon2-0Burgos
Burgos0-2Sporting Gijon
Burgos1-0Sporting Gijon
Sporting Gijon2-1Burgos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting Gijon 1499 · Burgos 1567

	Sporting Gijon	Draw	Burgos
Our model	40%	30%	30%
Market	39%	33%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Burgos (rating 1499 vs 1567).
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting Gijon	Burgos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.6	1.2 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.2	5.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X2.88

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 20:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.40▲	Pinn 2.61 ★
X	3.00 → 2.88▼	Pinn 3.12
2	3.10 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:52 +1’	2.30	3.00	3.10
05:42 +3’	2.40▲	3.00	3.20▲
15:27 +3’	2.60▲	3.00	2.90▼
20:57 +3’	2.45▼	3.00	3.10▲
01:05 +17’	2.45	2.88▼	3.20▲
09:32 +10’	2.60▲	2.88	3.00▼
20:50 +4’	2.40▼	2.88	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:25 +4’	2.52	2.91	3.14
21:58 +2’	2.54▲	2.94▲	3.17▲
08:55	2.52▼	2.94	3.20▲
15:29 +1’	2.61▲	3.12▲	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Gijon 3–0–3 Burgos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Spain Segunda	Burgos	1-0 HT 0-0	Sporting Gijon
14/09/25 Spain Segunda	Sporting Gijon	2-3 HT 0-2	Burgos
01/02/25 Spain Segunda	Sporting Gijon	2-0 HT 0-0	Burgos
10/11/24 Spain Segunda	Burgos	0-2 HT 0-1	Sporting Gijon
25/02/24 Spain Segunda	Burgos	1-0 HT 1-0	Sporting Gijon
02/09/23 Spain Segunda	Sporting Gijon	2-1 HT 1-0	Burgos

Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Las Palmas	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
2	Leganes	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
3	FC Andorra	1	1	0	0	5	1	3
4	Almeria	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
5	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
6	Mallorca	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
7	Burgos	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
8	CD Castellon	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
9	Cordoba	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
10	Real Sociedad B	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
11	Cadiz	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Sabadell	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Granada	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Celta Fortuna	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
11	Sporting Gijon	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
16	Girona	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
17	Oviedo	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
18	Albacete	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
19	Eibar	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
20	Valladolid	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
21	Eldense	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
22	AD Ceuta FC	2	0	0	2	1	7	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting Gijon	Burgos
Granada	2-1 W	1-0 W
Almeria	3-1 W	0-0 D
Cordoba	2-3 L	3-2 W
Real Sociedad B	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting Gijon (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting Gijon

WLWLLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Sabadell Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
30/05	Granada Spain Segunda	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
24/05	Almeria Spain Segunda	2-0	3-1	4	9	W
17/05	Real Zaragoza Spain Segunda	2-1	3-1	2	4	W
09/05	Malaga Spain Segunda	1-0	1-2	1	8	L
03/05	AD Ceuta FC Spain Segunda	1-2	1-2	6	7	L
26/04	Cordoba Spain Segunda	1-1	2-3	3	4	L
19/04	Cadiz Spain Segunda	1-0	3-0	2	7	W
11/04	Burgos Spain Segunda	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
06/04	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	8	4	W

Burgos

WWLDDDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Cordoba Spain Segunda	2-2	3-2	1	4	W
31/05	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
24/05	Cultural Leonesa Spain Segunda	2-0	2-0	0	6	W
16/05	Granada Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
09/05	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	10	5	D
03/05	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
25/04	Deportivo A Coruna Spain Segunda	1-1	1-1	7	6	D
18/04	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	1-1	1-3	1	7	L
11/04	Sporting Gijon Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
04/04	Albacete Spain Segunda	2-1	3-2	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Gijon vs Burgos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting Gijon win (40%). Probabilities: Sporting Gijon 40%, draw 32%, Burgos 29%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting Gijon vs Burgos?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Sporting Gijon 1.29 · Burgos 1.07), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting Gijon vs Burgos?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.