Football · Spain Segunda · 16/08, 19:00

Prediction: Burgos vs Cordoba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

Burgos1.13

Cordoba0.89

1X2

41% 31% 28%

Burgos Draw Cordoba

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Burgos 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWWWWDWL

Cordoba 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDDDWDWL

Head-to-head

Burgos 2–1–1 Cordoba (4 last)

Burgos4-0Cordoba
Cordoba2-0Burgos
Burgos3-2Cordoba
Cordoba2-2Burgos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Burgos 1541 · Cordoba 1488

	Burgos	Draw	Cordoba
Our model	40%	33%	27%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Burgos (rating 1541 vs 1488).
H2H favours Burgos: 2-1-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Burgos	Cordoba
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.1	3.8 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.35 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:45 +4’	2.25	3.20	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:48	2.35	3.18	3.18

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Burgos 2–1–1 Cordoba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Spain Segunda	Burgos	4-0 HT 2-0	Cordoba
03/01/26 Spain Segunda	Cordoba	2-0 HT 1-0	Burgos
10/05/25 Spain Segunda	Burgos	3-2 HT 1-1	Cordoba
26/08/24 Spain Segunda	Cordoba	2-2 HT 0-0	Burgos

Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AD Ceuta FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Albacete	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cadiz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Castellon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Eldense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leganes	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tenerife	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sabadell	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Burgos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cordoba	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Andorra	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Girona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Granada	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celta Fortuna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mallorca	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oviedo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Sociedad B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valladolid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Eibar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sporting Gijon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Almeria	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Las Palmas	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Burgos	Cordoba
Granada	1-0 W	1-0 W
Almeria	0-0 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Burgos (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Burgos

DDDWWWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Athletic Bilbao Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
29/07	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
25/07	Athletic Bilbao B Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
18/07	Real Sociedad B Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-0	3	1	W
31/05	FC Andorra Spain Segunda	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
24/05	Cultural Leonesa Spain Segunda	2-0	2-0	0	6	W
16/05	Granada Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
09/05	Almeria Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	10	5	D
03/05	Real Sociedad B Spain Segunda	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
25/04	Deportivo La Coruna Spain Segunda	1-1	1-1	7	6	D

Cordoba

WLLDDDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Almeria Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-4	4	0	L
06/08	Real Jaen Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
31/07	Elche Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
25/07	Cadiz Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
23/07	Sevilla Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
15/07	Orlando Pirates World Club Friendlies	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
31/05	Huesca Spain Segunda	0-0	1-1	9	5	D
24/05	Eibar Spain Segunda	0-2	0-2	13	5	L
15/05	Albacete Spain Segunda	0-2	1-2	12	4	L
10/05	Granada Spain Segunda	0-0	1-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Burgos vs Cordoba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Burgos win (41%). Probabilities: Burgos 41%, draw 31%, Cordoba 28%.

How many goals are expected in Burgos vs Cordoba?

The model expects 2.03 goals (Burgos 1.13 · Cordoba 0.89), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Burgos vs Cordoba?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.