Football · Spain Segunda · 15/08, 19:00

Prediction: Cadiz vs Celta Fortuna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

Cadiz1.45

Celta Fortuna1

1X2

46% 28% 25%

Cadiz Draw Celta Fortuna

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cadiz 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLDWL

Celta Fortuna 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

LDDDDWDWWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cadiz 1433 · Celta Fortuna 1544

	Cadiz	Draw	Celta Fortuna
Our model	46%	29%	25%
Market	47%	28%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Celta Fortuna (rating 1433 vs 1544).
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cadiz	Celta Fortuna
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.6	1.4 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.25

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
01:28 +2’	1.95	3.25	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Spain Segunda

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AD Ceuta FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Albacete	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cadiz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Castellon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Eldense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leganes	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tenerife	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sabadell	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Burgos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cordoba	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Andorra	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Girona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Granada	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Celta Fortuna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Mallorca	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Oviedo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Sociedad B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Valladolid	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Eibar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sporting Gijon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Almeria	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Las Palmas	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Cadiz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Las Palmas Europe Friendlies	1-2	1-3	4	4	L
05/08	Granada Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
01/08	Tenerife Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-2	2	3	D
29/07	AD Ceuta FC Europe Friendlies	1-2	1-3	7	3	L
25/07	Cordoba Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
22/07	Leicester Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
18/07	Orlando Pirates World Club Friendlies	1-2	1-2	7	1	L
31/05	Racing Santander Spain Segunda	0-3	1-4	3	0	L
24/05	Leganes Spain Segunda	1-0	3-0	4	9	W
15/05	CD Castellon Spain Segunda	0-0	1-1	1	9	D

Celta Fortuna

LDDDDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	UD Ourense Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	8	4	W
08/08	Coruxo Europe Friendlies	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
01/08	Vizela Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	0	2	W
25/07	Lugo Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
20/06	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Play-Offs	1-1	4-1	2	7	W
13/06	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Play-Offs	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
07/06	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Play-Offs	0-1	2-2	6	11	D
31/05	CE Europa Spain Primera Division RFEF Play-Offs	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
23/05	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
17/05	Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cadiz vs Celta Fortuna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cadiz win (46%). Probabilities: Cadiz 46%, draw 28%, Celta Fortuna 25%.

How many goals are expected in Cadiz vs Celta Fortuna?

The model expects 2.45 goals (Cadiz 1.45 · Celta Fortuna 1), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Celta Fortuna?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.