Football · Switzerland Super League · 09/08, 16:30
Prediction: Basel vs FC Thun
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.3Total
Basel1.91
FC Thun1.39
1X2
Basel
Draw
FC Thun
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Basel
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
FC Thun
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Basel
3–3
FC Thun
(6 last)
- Basel3-1FC Thun
- FC Thun3-1Basel
- Basel1-2FC Thun
- FC Thun1-3Basel
- Basel2-0FC Thun
- Basel2-3FC Thun
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Basel 1468 · FC Thun 1497
| Basel | Draw | FC Thun | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Market | 49% | 24% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Basel | FC Thun | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.7 | 1.6 / 2.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 25/50/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.6 | 2.3 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Basel 3–0–3 FC Thun
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Switzerland Super League | Basel | 3-1 HT 1-1 | FC Thun |
| 18/04/26 Switzerland Super League | FC Thun | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Basel |
| 01/02/26 Switzerland Super League | Basel | 1-2 HT 0-1 | FC Thun |
| 13/09/25 Switzerland Super League | FC Thun | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Basel |
| 11/01/25 Europe Friendlies | Basel | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FC Thun |
| 27/06/21 Europe Friendlies | Basel | 2-3 HT 2-3 | FC Thun |
Standings · Switzerland Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Boys | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Lugano | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | St Gallen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | FC Lausanne-Sport | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | FC Sion | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 6 | FC Zurich | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Basel | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | FC Thun | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 9 | Grasshoppers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 | Servette | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Lucerne | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Basel | FC Thun |
|---|---|---|
| St Gallen | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Young Boys | 0-3 L | 0-6 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Basel
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 25/07 | Servette Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Juventus Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Winterthur Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 08/07 | Yverdon Sport FC Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 26/06 | FC Rapperswil-Jona Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Lugano Switzerland Super League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | St Gallen Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 10 | 9 | L |
| 10/05 | Young Boys Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | FC Thun Switzerland Super League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
FC Thun
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Young Boys Switzerland Super League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 28/07 | Dinamo Zagreb UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
2-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 25/07 | Lucerne Switzerland Super League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 21/07 | Dinamo Zagreb UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 11/07 | Waldhof Mannheim Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Elversberg Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 26/06 | Breitenrain Club Friendly List |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 26/06 | Young Boys Club Friendly List |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | St Gallen Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 14/05 | Young Boys Switzerland Super League |
2-3 | 3-8 | 3 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Basel vs FC Thun?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Basel win (49%). Probabilities: Basel 49%, draw 24%, FC Thun 27%.
How many goals are expected in Basel vs FC Thun?
The model expects 3.3 goals (Basel 1.91 · FC Thun 1.39), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Basel vs FC Thun?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.