Football · Tunisia League 1 · 22/08, 17:30
Prediction: ES Hammam Sousse vs US Monastir
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.62Total
ES Hammam Sousse0.76
US Monastir0.86
1X2
ES Hammam Sousse
Draw
US Monastir
Markets
Under 1.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
ES Hammam Sousse
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
US Monastir
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
ES Hammam Sousse
1–1–2
US Monastir
(4 last)
- US Monastir1-3ES Hammam Sousse
- ES Hammam Sousse1-1US Monastir
- US Monastir4-1ES Hammam Sousse
- ES Hammam Sousse1-2US Monastir
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · ES Hammam Sousse 1532 · US Monastir 1485
| ES Hammam Sousse | Draw | US Monastir | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 38% | 34% |
| Market | 31% | 32% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.62 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ES Hammam Sousse (rating 1532 vs 1485).
- H2H favours US Monastir: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| ES Hammam Sousse | US Monastir | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 29/71/0% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 4.4 | 3.1 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.4 | 5.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · ES Hammam Sousse 1–1–2 US Monastir
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/12/22 Club Friendly List | US Monastir | 1-3 HT 1-2 | ES Hammam Sousse |
| 25/08/22 World Club Friendlies | ES Hammam Sousse | 1-1 HT 0-0 | US Monastir |
| 15/08/21 Europe Friendlies | US Monastir | 4-1 HT 1-1 | ES Hammam Sousse |
| 13/02/19 World Club Friendlies | ES Hammam Sousse | 1-2 HT 1-1 | US Monastir |
Standings · Tunisia League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Progres Sakiet Eddaier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Avenir de La Marsa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bizertin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Club Africain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CS Hammam Lif | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CS Sfaxien | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ES Hammam Sousse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ES Metlaoui | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Etoile Sportive Sahel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ES Zarzis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Esperance de Tunis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | JS Omrane | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Olympique de Beja | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stade Tunisien | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | US Ben Guerdane | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | US Monastir | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
ES Hammam Sousse
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05 | Progres Sakiet Eddaier Tunisia League 2 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 11/05 | CS Hammam Lif Tunisia League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 01/05 | Sfax Railways Tunisia League 2 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 27/04 | OC Kerkennah Tunisia League 2 |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 22/04 | CS Msaken Tunisia League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 13/04 | SA Menzel Bourguiba Tunisia League 2 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 05/04 | US Bousalem Tunisia League 2 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/03 | Tataouine Tunisia League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 28/02 | BS Bouhajla Tunisia League 2 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/02 | AS Megrine Tunisia League 2 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
US Monastir
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05 | AS Soliman Tunisia League 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 08/05 | JS Kairouanaise Tunisia League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 04/05 | ES Metlaoui Tunisia League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 29/04 | AS Gabes Tunisia League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | US Ben Guerdane Tunisia League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | ES Zarzis Tunisia Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 15 | 8 | D |
| 11/04 | Club Africain Tunisia League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 04/04 | JS Omrane Tunisia League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 22/03 | Club Africain Tunisia Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 07/03 | CS Sfaxien Tunisia League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in ES Hammam Sousse vs US Monastir?
According to our model, the most likely result is an US Monastir win (35%). Probabilities: ES Hammam Sousse 30%, draw 35%, US Monastir 35%.
How many goals are expected in ES Hammam Sousse vs US Monastir?
The model expects 1.62 goals (ES Hammam Sousse 0.76 · US Monastir 0.86), with a 54% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in ES Hammam Sousse vs US Monastir?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.