Football · Tunisia League 1 · 23/08, 17:30
Prediction: Esperance de Tunis vs Etoile Sportive Sahel
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.34Total
Esperance de Tunis1.73
Etoile Sportive Sahel0.61
1X2
Esperance de Tunis
Draw
Etoile Sportive Sahel
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Esperance de Tunis
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Etoile Sportive Sahel
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Esperance de Tunis
5–1–0
Etoile Sportive Sahel
(6 last)
- Etoile Sportive Sahel0-0Esperance de Tunis
- Esperance de Tunis1-0Etoile Sportive Sahel
- Esperance de Tunis3-0Etoile Sportive Sahel
- Etoile Sportive Sahel0-2Esperance de Tunis
- Esperance de Tunis3-2Etoile Sportive Sahel
- Etoile Sportive Sahel0-1Esperance de Tunis
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Esperance de Tunis 1618 · Etoile Sportive Sahel 1492
| Esperance de Tunis | Draw | Etoile Sportive Sahel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 25% | 12% |
| Market | 65% | 22% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Esperance de Tunis (rating 1618 vs 1492).
- H2H favours Esperance de Tunis: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Esperance de Tunis | Etoile Sportive Sahel | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 6 | 3.3 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Esperance de Tunis 5–1–0 Etoile Sportive Sahel
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Tunisia League 1 | Etoile Sportive Sahel | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Esperance de Tunis |
| 05/10/25 Tunisia League 1 | Esperance de Tunis | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Etoile Sportive Sahel |
| 26/02/25 Tunisia League 1 | Esperance de Tunis | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Etoile Sportive Sahel |
| 03/11/24 Tunisia League 1 | Etoile Sportive Sahel | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Esperance de Tunis |
| 12/05/24 Tunisia League 1 | Esperance de Tunis | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Etoile Sportive Sahel |
| 10/03/24 Tunisia League 1 | Etoile Sportive Sahel | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Esperance de Tunis |
Standings · Tunisia League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Progres Sakiet Eddaier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Avenir de La Marsa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bizertin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Club Africain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CS Hammam Lif | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CS Sfaxien | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ES Hammam Sousse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ES Metlaoui | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Etoile Sportive Sahel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | ES Zarzis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Esperance de Tunis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | JS Omrane | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Olympique de Beja | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stade Tunisien | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | US Ben Guerdane | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | US Monastir | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Esperance de Tunis | Etoile Sportive Sahel |
|---|---|---|
| CS Sfaxien | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Bizertin | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| ES Zarzis | 2-2 D | 1-3 L |
| Avenir de La Marsa | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Olympique de Beja | 3-0 W | 1-3 L |
| ES Metlaoui | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 4 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Esperance de Tunis (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Esperance de Tunis
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05 | US Ben Guerdane Tunisia League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Club Africain Tunisia League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 04/05 | JS Omrane Tunisia League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 30/04 | CS Sfaxien Tunisia League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 26/04 | Bizertin Tunisia League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 23/04 | ES Zarzis Tunisia League 1 |
2-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 04/04 | Etoile Sportive Sahel Tunisia League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 07/03 | Avenir de La Marsa Tunisia League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 01/03 | Olympique de Beja Tunisia League 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 25/02 | ES Metlaoui Tunisia League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
Etoile Sportive Sahel
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05 | CS Sfaxien Tunisia League 1 |
0-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Bizertin Tunisia League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 04/05 | ES Zarzis Tunisia League 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/04 | ES Metlaoui Tunisia League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Avenir de La Marsa Tunisia League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | Olympique de Beja Tunisia League 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 04/04 | Esperance de Tunis Tunisia League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 08/03 | Stade Tunisien Tunisia League 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 28/02 | AS Soliman Tunisia League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 17 | 3 | W |
| 13/02 | JS Kairouanaise Tunisia League 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Esperance de Tunis vs Etoile Sportive Sahel?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Esperance de Tunis win (64%). Probabilities: Esperance de Tunis 64%, draw 23%, Etoile Sportive Sahel 12%.
How many goals are expected in Esperance de Tunis vs Etoile Sportive Sahel?
The model expects 2.34 goals (Esperance de Tunis 1.73 · Etoile Sportive Sahel 0.61), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Esperance de Tunis vs Etoile Sportive Sahel?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.