Football · Costa Rica Segunda · 28/08, 23:00

Prediction: AD Carmelita vs FC Aserri

Team pages: AD Carmelita · FC Aserri

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

AD Carmelita1.58

FC Aserri1.12

1X2

47% 27% 26%

AD Carmelita Draw FC Aserri

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Carmelita 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLDDDLDW

FC Aserri 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLDLDLWD

Head-to-head

AD Carmelita 1–3–2 FC Aserri (6 last)

FC Aserri0-0AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita2-2FC Aserri
AD Carmelita1-1FC Aserri
FC Aserri1-0AD Carmelita
FC Aserri2-1AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita1-0FC Aserri

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Carmelita 1494 · FC Aserri 1484

	AD Carmelita	Draw	FC Aserri
Our model	47%	27%	26%
Market	47%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Aserri: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Carmelita	FC Aserri
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.40

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:18 +9’	1.91	3.40	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Carmelita 1–3–2 FC Aserri

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/03/26 Costa Rica Segunda	FC Aserri	0-0 HT 0-0	AD Carmelita
15/02/26 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Carmelita	2-2 HT 0-1	FC Aserri
02/11/25 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Carmelita	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Aserri
19/09/25 Costa Rica Segunda	FC Aserri	1-0 HT 0-0	AD Carmelita
26/04/22 Costa Rica Segunda	FC Aserri	2-1 HT 2-1	AD Carmelita
19/04/22 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Carmelita	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Aserri

Standings · Costa Rica Segunda · Liga de Ascenso, Apertura 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santa Ana	3	3	0	0	7	3	9
2	Cariari Pococi	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
3	Pitbulls Santa Barbara	3	1	2	0	5	4	5
4	AD Carmelita	4	1	2	1	6	6	5
5	FC Aserri	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
6	Guadalupe FC	4	1	1	2	4	6	4
7	Futbol Consultants Desamparados	3	0	1	2	2	4	1
8	CS Uruguay de Coronado	4	0	1	3	4	8	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Carmelita	FC Aserri
Guadalupe FC	1-0 W	2-0 W
Futbol Consultants Desamparados	1-1 D	2-6 L
Santa Ana	2-3 L	0-1 L
CS Uruguay de Coronado	2-2 D	1-0 W
Pitbulls Santa Barbara	1-0 W	1-1 D
Cariari Pococi	1-2 L	2-2 D
Escorpiones de Belen FC	2-0 W	0-8 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Carmelita

WLWLDDDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
14/08	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
09/08	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	2-1	2-3	2	6	L
02/08	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	2-2	4	5	D
31/03	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
25/03	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
21/03	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	0-3	0-3	9	6	L
16/03	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
12/03	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-2	8	4	L
08/03	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	2-0	4	1	W

FC Aserri

WLDLDLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
15/08	Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
01/08	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
12/04	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	2-1	2-2	3	2	D
04/04	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-5	0-8	4	0	L
31/03	AD Carmelita Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-0	11	2	D
27/03	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	2-2	2-3	4	5	L
19/03	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	2-2	7	4	D
13/03	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	1-4	2-6	6	1	L
10/03	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-0	1	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Carmelita vs FC Aserri?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Carmelita win (47%). Probabilities: AD Carmelita 47%, draw 27%, FC Aserri 26%.

How many goals are expected in AD Carmelita vs FC Aserri?

The model expects 2.7 goals (AD Carmelita 1.58 · FC Aserri 1.12), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Carmelita vs FC Aserri?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.