Football · Costa Rica Segunda · 06/09, 19:00

Prediction: FC Aserri vs Cariari Pococi

Team pages: FC Aserri · Cariari Pococi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

FC Aserri1.4

Cariari Pococi1.34

1X2

38% 28% 35%

FC Aserri Draw Cariari Pococi

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Aserri 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDLDLWDW

Cariari Pococi 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDDLLDWWDD

Head-to-head

FC Aserri 1–2–3 Cariari Pococi (6 last)

FC Aserri2-2Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi2-2FC Aserri
Cariari Pococi3-0FC Aserri
FC Aserri0-1Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi2-1FC Aserri
FC Aserri3-1Cariari Pococi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Aserri 1468 · Cariari Pococi 1510

	FC Aserri	Draw	Cariari Pococi
Our model	37%	28%	35%
Market	38%	27%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cariari Pococi (rating 1468 vs 1510).
H2H favours Cariari Pococi: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Aserri	Cariari Pococi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.4	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.5	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	22/33/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.4	1.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.30

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.63 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:18 +7’	2.38	3.30	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:13 +7’	2.63	3.05	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Aserri 1–2–3 Cariari Pococi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Costa Rica Segunda	FC Aserri	2-2 HT 2-1	Cariari Pococi
19/03/26 Costa Rica Segunda	Cariari Pococi	2-2 HT 1-0	FC Aserri
16/11/25 Costa Rica Segunda	Cariari Pococi	3-0 HT 1-0	FC Aserri
27/09/25 Costa Rica Segunda	FC Aserri	0-1 HT 0-1	Cariari Pococi
02/04/25 Costa Rica Segunda	Cariari Pococi	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Aserri
19/02/25 Costa Rica Segunda	FC Aserri	3-1 HT 1-1	Cariari Pococi

Standings · Costa Rica Segunda · Liga de Ascenso, Apertura 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santa Ana	5	4	0	1	9	6	12
2	Pitbulls Santa Barbara	4	2	2	0	7	4	8
3	Cariari Pococi	3	2	1	0	5	3	7
3	FC Aserri	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
5	CS Uruguay de Coronado	6	2	1	3	6	8	7
6	AD Carmelita	5	1	2	2	7	8	5
7	Guadalupe FC	6	1	2	3	7	10	5
8	Futbol Consultants Desamparados	5	0	1	4	3	7	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Aserri	Cariari Pococi
Pitbulls Santa Barbara	1-1 D	0-0 D
Guadalupe FC	2-0 W	3-3 D
Escorpiones de Belen FC	0-8 L	1-4 L
Futbol Consultants Desamparados	2-6 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cariari Pococi (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Aserri

LDLDLDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	AD Carmelita Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
22/08	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
15/08	Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
01/08	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
12/04	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	2-1	2-2	3	2	D
04/04	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-5	0-8	4	0	L
31/03	AD Carmelita Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-0	11	2	D
27/03	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	2-2	2-3	4	5	L
19/03	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	2-2	7	4	D
13/03	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	1-4	2-6	6	1	L

Cariari Pococi

LDDLLDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	–	0-0	–	–	D
29/08	Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda	1-1	3-3	7	4	D
21/08	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
08/08	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/04	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	1-2	2-2	8	2	D
05/04	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-1	11	6	L
29/03	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	0-1	5	9	L
26/03	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
19/03	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	2-2	0	4	D
17/03	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-2	1-4	1	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Aserri vs Cariari Pococi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Aserri win (38%). Probabilities: FC Aserri 38%, draw 28%, Cariari Pococi 35%.

How many goals are expected in FC Aserri vs Cariari Pococi?

The model expects 2.74 goals (FC Aserri 1.4 · Cariari Pococi 1.34), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Aserri vs Cariari Pococi?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.