Football · Costa Rica Segunda · 07/09, 22:30

Prediction: AD Carmelita vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara

Team pages: AD Carmelita · Pitbulls Santa Barbara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

AD Carmelita1.24

Pitbulls Santa Barbara1.13

1X2

39% 28% 33%

AD Carmelita Draw Pitbulls Santa Barbara

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Carmelita 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDDDLDWL

Pitbulls Santa Barbara 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLLDWDWD

Head-to-head

AD Carmelita 2–1–1 Pitbulls Santa Barbara (4 last)

AD Carmelita1-0Pitbulls Santa Barbara
Pitbulls Santa Barbara0-0AD Carmelita
Pitbulls Santa Barbara2-0AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita2-1Pitbulls Santa Barbara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Carmelita 1471 · Pitbulls Santa Barbara 1505

	AD Carmelita	Draw	Pitbulls Santa Barbara
Our model	38%	30%	32%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AD Carmelita: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Carmelita	Pitbulls Santa Barbara
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.3	2.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.40

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
20:22 +4’	2.25	3.40	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Carmelita 2–1–1 Pitbulls Santa Barbara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/26 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Carmelita	1-0 HT 1-0	Pitbulls Santa Barbara
02/02/26 Costa Rica Segunda	Pitbulls Santa Barbara	0-0 HT 0-0	AD Carmelita
19/10/25 Costa Rica Segunda	Pitbulls Santa Barbara	2-0 HT 0-0	AD Carmelita
04/09/25 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Carmelita	2-1 HT 0-0	Pitbulls Santa Barbara

Standings · Costa Rica Segunda · Liga de Ascenso, Apertura 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santa Ana	5	4	0	1	9	6	12
2	Pitbulls Santa Barbara	4	2	2	0	7	4	8
3	Cariari Pococi	3	2	1	0	5	3	7
3	FC Aserri	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
5	CS Uruguay de Coronado	6	2	1	3	6	8	7
6	AD Carmelita	5	1	2	2	7	8	5
7	Guadalupe FC	6	1	2	3	7	10	5
8	Futbol Consultants Desamparados	5	0	1	4	3	7	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Carmelita	Pitbulls Santa Barbara
FC Aserri	1-2 L	1-1 D
Guadalupe FC	1-0 W	2-2 D
Futbol Consultants Desamparados	1-1 D	2-3 L
Santa Ana	2-3 L	2-0 W
CS Uruguay de Coronado	2-2 D	2-1 W
Cariari Pococi	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Pitbulls Santa Barbara (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Carmelita

LWLDDDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
25/08	Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
14/08	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
09/08	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	2-1	2-3	2	6	L
02/08	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	2-2	4	5	D
31/03	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
25/03	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
21/03	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	0-3	0-3	9	6	L
16/03	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
12/03	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-2	8	4	L

Pitbulls Santa Barbara

DWLLLDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	–	0-0	–	–	D
01/09	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	2-0	0	5	W
22/08	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
18/08	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	2-1	10	6	W
11/08	Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda	1-2	2-2	4	2	D
28/04	Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
21/04	Inter San Carlos Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
12/04	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	1-1	2-3	6	6	L
07/04	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	3-1	5	1	W
26/03	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	2-2	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Carmelita vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Carmelita win (39%). Probabilities: AD Carmelita 39%, draw 28%, Pitbulls Santa Barbara 33%.

How many goals are expected in AD Carmelita vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara?

The model expects 2.37 goals (AD Carmelita 1.24 · Pitbulls Santa Barbara 1.13), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Carmelita vs Pitbulls Santa Barbara?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.