Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 12/09, 18:00
Prediction: IF Gnistan (W) vs HPS (W)
Team pages: IF Gnistan (W) · HPS (W)
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.12Total
IF Gnistan (W)1.03
HPS (W)2.1
1X2
IF Gnistan (W)
Draw
HPS (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
IF Gnistan (W)
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
HPS (W)
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
IF Gnistan (W)
0–2
HPS (W)
(2 last)
- HPS (W)4-0IF Gnistan (W)
- IF Gnistan (W)1-2HPS (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · IF Gnistan (W) 1442 · HPS (W) 1530
| IF Gnistan (W) | Draw | HPS (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 22% | 61% |
| Market | 19% | 18% | 63% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HPS (W) (rating 1442 vs 1530).
- H2H favours HPS (W): 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| IF Gnistan (W) | HPS (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.7 | 1.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.8 | 2.9 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0 | 2.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · IF Gnistan (W) 0–0–2 HPS (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HPS (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | IF Gnistan (W) |
| 04/04/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | IF Gnistan (W) | 1-2 HT 0-0 | HPS (W) |
Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK (W) | 18 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 46 | 15 | 46 |
| 2 | Aland United (W) | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 50 | 24 | 37 |
| 3 | KuPS (W) | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 25 | 37 |
| 4 | HPS (W) | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 22 | 31 |
| 5 | Ilves (W) | 18 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 34 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan (W) | 18 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 26 | 41 | 16 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | IF Gnistan (W) | HPS (W) |
|---|---|---|
| KuPS (W) | 0-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Aland United (W) | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Ilves (W) | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| HJK (W) | 1-3 L | 3-3 D |
| VIFK (W) | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
IF Gnistan (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 15/08 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 12/08 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 18/07 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 12/07 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 05/07 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
HPS (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 21/08 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 25/07 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 19/07 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 12/07 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 28/06 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 13/06 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in IF Gnistan (W) vs HPS (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an HPS (W) win (62%). Probabilities: IF Gnistan (W) 18%, draw 20%, HPS (W) 62%.
How many goals are expected in IF Gnistan (W) vs HPS (W)?
The model expects 3.12 goals (IF Gnistan (W) 1.03 · HPS (W) 2.1), with a 56% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in IF Gnistan (W) vs HPS (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.