Football · Belgium First Division A · 09/08, 16:00

Prediction: Charleroi vs OH Leuven

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Charleroi1.67

OH Leuven1.05

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Charleroi Draw OH Leuven

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Charleroi 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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OH Leuven 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Charleroi 2–3–1 OH Leuven (6 last)

Charleroi1-1OH Leuven
OH Leuven0-2Charleroi
Charleroi0-2OH Leuven
OH Leuven2-2Charleroi
Charleroi2-1OH Leuven
OH Leuven0-0Charleroi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charleroi 1504 · OH Leuven 1508

	Charleroi	Draw	OH Leuven
Our model	51%	27%	23%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Charleroi: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charleroi	OH Leuven
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	2.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	1.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.9	2.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.68
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.53 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +2’	1.80	3.50	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:36	1.83	3.58	4.38
01:36	1.78▼	3.68▲	4.53▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Charleroi 2–3–1 OH Leuven

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/05/26 Belgium First Division A	Charleroi	1-1 HT 0-1	OH Leuven
25/04/26 Belgium First Division A	OH Leuven	0-2 HT 0-0	Charleroi
14/03/26 Belgium First Division A	Charleroi	0-2 HT 0-0	OH Leuven
27/07/25 Belgium First Division A	OH Leuven	2-2 HT 1-0	Charleroi
24/05/25 Belgium First Division A	Charleroi	2-1 HT 1-1	OH Leuven
28/03/25 Belgium First Division A	OH Leuven	0-0 HT 0-0	Charleroi

Standings · Belgium First Division A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cercle Brugge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Club Brugge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Genk	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KV Kortrijk	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Westerlo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lommel	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	OH Leuven	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	RAAL La Louviere	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Antwerp	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Charleroi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Anderlecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	SK Beveren	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sint-Truidense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Standard Liege	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Zulte-Waregem	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Union Saint Gilloise	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KV Mechelen	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charleroi	OH Leuven
Standard Liege	2-0 W	1-2 L
Westerlo	0-1 L	3-3 D
Antwerp	1-0 W	3-0 W
Genk	2-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Charleroi

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Rayo Vallecano Europe Friendlies	0-1	2-3	7	7	L
01/08	Tienen Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
25/07	Lens Elite Club Friendlies	1-1	2-2	3	1	D
17/07	Feyenoord Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-3	3	0	L
23/05	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	0-0	2-0	9	8	W
19/05	OH Leuven Belgium First Division A	0-1	1-1	14	0	D
16/05	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
10/05	Antwerp Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
02/05	Genk Belgium First Division A	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
25/04	OH Leuven Belgium First Division A	0-0	2-0	6	2	W

OH Leuven

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Lille Elite Club Friendlies	2-2	3-6	2	6	L
18/07	Lierse Kempenzonen Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/07	Lommel Europe Friendlies	3-1	5-1	–	–	W
11/07	Olympiacos Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-1	7	2	D
04/07	Crossing Schaerbeek Europe Friendlies	4-0	7-0	6	0	W
23/05	Genk Belgium First Division A	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
19/05	Charleroi Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-1	6	0	D
15/05	Antwerp Belgium First Division A	2-0	3-0	1	2	W
08/05	Standard Liege Belgium First Division A	1-0	1-2	7	2	L
02/05	Westerlo Belgium First Division A	3-0	3-3	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charleroi win (51%). Probabilities: Charleroi 51%, draw 26%, OH Leuven 23%.

How many goals are expected in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Charleroi 1.67 · OH Leuven 1.05), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.