Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B · 17/10, 20:00

Prediction: Campo Grande AC vs Duque de Caxias FC

Team pages: Campo Grande AC · Duque de Caxias FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.04Total

Campo Grande AC0.99

Duque de Caxias FC1.05

1X2

33% 31% 36%

Campo Grande AC Draw Duque de Caxias FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Campo Grande AC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWWLWDDL

Duque de Caxias FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWWLLW

Head-to-head

Campo Grande AC 1–1–1 Duque de Caxias FC (3 last)

Duque de Caxias FC0-0Campo Grande AC
Campo Grande AC0-1Duque de Caxias FC
Duque de Caxias FC1-3Campo Grande AC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Campo Grande AC 1486 · Duque de Caxias FC 1508

	Campo Grande AC	Draw	Duque de Caxias FC
Our model	32%	33%	35%
Market	33%	30%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.04 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 12.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Campo Grande AC	Duque de Caxias FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.1	1.3 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.5	1.9 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.8 / 0.2	6.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.00

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.89 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.49

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:00 +7’	2.70	3.00	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:11 +22’	2.81	2.72	2.50
19:12 +3’	2.89▲	2.75▲	2.49▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Campo Grande AC 1–1–1 Duque de Caxias FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/10/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Duque de Caxias FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Campo Grande AC
26/10/22 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Campo Grande AC	0-1 HT 0-0	Duque de Caxias FC
13/11/21 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Duque de Caxias FC	1-3 HT 0-1	Campo Grande AC

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Niteroiense	6	5	1	0	10	2	16
2	Duque de Caxias FC	6	4	0	2	10	5	12
3	Serrano	6	3	2	1	7	6	11
4	Goytacaz	6	3	2	1	6	5	11
5	Petropolis	6	2	4	0	7	4	10
6	Artsul Futebol Clube	7	2	4	1	10	8	10
7	Campo Grande AC	6	2	2	2	6	8	8
8	Macae Esporte FC	6	2	1	3	7	7	7
9	Sao Cristovao RJ	6	1	3	2	4	5	6
10	Nova Cidade	7	1	3	3	7	9	6
11	Audax Rio	6	0	1	5	2	9	1
12	Carapebus/Campos	6	0	1	5	5	13	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Campo Grande AC	Duque de Caxias FC
Nova Cidade	0-3 L	3-0 W
Carapebus/Campos	1-0 W	4-1 W
Niteroiense	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Duque de Caxias FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Campo Grande AC

DLLWWLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-3	5	5	L
03/10	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
26/09	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	2-1	8	8	W
12/09	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-0	2-3	–	–	L
05/09	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
08/11	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
05/11	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
01/11	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
24/10	Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Duque de Caxias FC

DWWLWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Audax Rio Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
03/10	Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-2	1-2	3	6	L
26/09	Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-2	0-2	7	5	L
19/09	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
11/09	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-0	4-1	4	1	W
05/09	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	3-0	1	9	W
22/11	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
15/11	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	5	9	W
08/11	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
05/11	Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	5	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Campo Grande AC vs Duque de Caxias FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Duque de Caxias FC win (36%). Probabilities: Campo Grande AC 33%, draw 31%, Duque de Caxias FC 36%.

How many goals are expected in Campo Grande AC vs Duque de Caxias FC?

The model expects 2.04 goals (Campo Grande AC 0.99 · Duque de Caxias FC 1.05), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Campo Grande AC vs Duque de Caxias FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.