Football · Brazil Serie D · 08/08, 21:00
Prediction: Nacional AM vs ABC
Team pages: Nacional AM · ABC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.09Total
Nacional AM1.21
ABC0.88
1X2
Nacional AM
Draw
ABC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 65%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Nacional AM
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
ABC
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nacional AM 1519 · ABC 1540
| Nacional AM | Draw | ABC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 32% | 25% |
| Market | 43% | 32% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional AM | ABC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 1.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.7 | 3.6 / 8.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.1 | 5.5 / 0 |
Standings · Brazil Serie D · Brasileiro Serie D 2026, Group A8
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ABC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 23 |
| 2 | America RN | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 21 |
| 3 | Maguary PE | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Central SC | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Sousa EC | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 10 |
| 6 | Laguna RN | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 20 | 2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional AM
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Iguatu Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 18/07 | Iguatu Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 12/07 | Capital CF Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 04/07 | Capital CF Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | Araguaina Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 21/06 | Araguaina Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 14/06 | Monte Roraima Brazil Serie D |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Manaus Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 29/05 | Paysandu Brazil Copa Verde |
0-2 | 2-4 | 10 | 8 | L |
| 23/05 | GA Sampaio Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
ABC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Luverdense Brazil Serie D |
2-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 19/07 | Luverdense Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 12/07 | Aguia de Maraba Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 3-0 | 14 | 5 | W |
| 04/07 | Aguia de Maraba Brazil Serie D |
0-1 | 1-2 | 13 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | AE Altos Brazil Serie D |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 21/06 | AE Altos Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Maguary PE Brazil Serie D |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Laguna RN Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 6 | W |
| 28/05 | Vitoria Brazil Copa Nordeste |
2-1 | 3-4 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | America RN Brazil Serie D |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional AM vs ABC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional AM win (43%). Probabilities: Nacional AM 43%, draw 32%, ABC 25%.
How many goals are expected in Nacional AM vs ABC?
The model expects 2.09 goals (Nacional AM 1.21 · ABC 0.88), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Nacional AM vs ABC?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.