Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 18/08, 00:15
Prediction: Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa y Justicia
Team pages: Velez Sarsfield · Defensa y Justicia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
Velez Sarsfield1.67
Defensa y Justicia0.92
1X2
Velez Sarsfield
Draw
Defensa y Justicia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Velez Sarsfield
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Defensa y Justicia
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Velez Sarsfield
1–5–0
Defensa y Justicia
(6 last)
- Defensa y Justicia1-1Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield3-0Defensa y Justicia
- Defensa y Justicia0-0Velez Sarsfield
- Defensa y Justicia1-1Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield0-0Defensa y Justicia
- Defensa y Justicia1-1Velez Sarsfield
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Velez Sarsfield 1540 · Defensa y Justicia 1445
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Defensa y Justicia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 27% | 20% |
| Market | 53% | 29% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Velez Sarsfield (rating 1540 vs 1445).
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Velez Sarsfield | Defensa y Justicia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.2 | 2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.2 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Velez Sarsfield 1–5–0 Defensa y Justicia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 03/08/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Defensa y Justicia |
| 31/03/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 25/06/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 28/07/21 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Defensa y Justicia |
| 28/03/21 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Defensa y Justicia | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Velez Sarsfield | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Defensa y Justicia | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 4 | Deportivo Riestra | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Lanus | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | CA Independiente | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Central Cordoba | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | Boca Juniors | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 10 | Newell's | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Union Santa Fe | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 12 | Platense | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 13 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | Estudiantes LP | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 15 | San Lorenzo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Velez Sarsfield | Defensa y Justicia |
|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 1-1 D | 0-4 L |
| CA Independiente | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| CA Talleres de Córdoba | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Instituto AC Cordoba | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Newell's | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Velez Sarsfield (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Velez Sarsfield
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 04/08 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 31/07 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 17 | 8 | L |
| 05/05 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 01/05 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 27/04 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 10 | D |
| 21/04 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 14/04 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Defensa y Justicia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 01/08 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-3 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 29/07 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 24/07 | Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 16/07 | Racing Club Argentina Cup |
0-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 04/05 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/04 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 07/04 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa y Justicia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Velez Sarsfield win (53%). Probabilities: Velez Sarsfield 53%, draw 28%, Defensa y Justicia 19%.
How many goals are expected in Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa y Justicia?
The model expects 2.59 goals (Velez Sarsfield 1.67 · Defensa y Justicia 0.92), with a 59% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa y Justicia?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.