Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 06/11, 23:00
Prediction: Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield
Team pages: Union Santa Fe · Velez Sarsfield
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.82Total
Union Santa Fe1.57
Velez Sarsfield1.25
1X2
Union Santa Fe
Draw
Velez Sarsfield
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Union Santa Fe
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Velez Sarsfield
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union Santa Fe
2–2–2
Velez Sarsfield
(6 last)
- Velez Sarsfield2-2Union Santa Fe
- Union Santa Fe1-0Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield0-0Union Santa Fe
- Union Santa Fe2-1Velez Sarsfield
- Velez Sarsfield4-0Union Santa Fe
- Velez Sarsfield4-1Union Santa Fe
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union Santa Fe 1495 · Velez Sarsfield 1533
| Union Santa Fe | Draw | Velez Sarsfield | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 27% | 29% |
| Market | 42% | 30% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Santa Fe | Velez Sarsfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 3.6 | 3.2 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.4 | 3.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Santa Fe 2–2–2 Velez Sarsfield
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Union Santa Fe |
| 07/12/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Union Santa Fe | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 24/07/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Union Santa Fe |
| 06/08/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | Union Santa Fe | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Velez Sarsfield |
| 07/09/21 Argentina Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 4-0 HT 0-0 | Union Santa Fe |
| 04/04/21 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Velez Sarsfield | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Union Santa Fe |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 13 | 33 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 23 | 14 | 30 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 25 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Lanus | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 11 | 25 |
| 6 | Newell's | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 22 |
| 7 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 16 | 21 |
| 8 | CA Independiente | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 20 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 19 |
| 10 | Union Santa Fe | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 22 | 24 | 18 |
| 11 | Platense | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 17 |
| 12 | Estudiantes LP | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 21 | 15 |
| 13 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 22 | 12 |
| 14 | Deportivo Riestra | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 12 |
| 15 | Central Cordoba | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 25 | 10 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union Santa Fe | Velez Sarsfield |
|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes LP | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Deportivo Riestra | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| San Lorenzo | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Santa Fe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 20/10 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 10/10 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 03/10 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 19/09 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 08/09 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 21/08 | CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
Velez Sarsfield
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 9 | D |
| 26/10 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/10 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 12/10 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 06/10 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 21/09 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 11/09 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 06/09 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 24/08 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Santa Fe win (43%). Probabilities: Union Santa Fe 43%, draw 29%, Velez Sarsfield 28%.
How many goals are expected in Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?
The model expects 2.82 goals (Union Santa Fe 1.57 · Velez Sarsfield 1.25), with a 62% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.