Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 05/11, 23:15
Prediction: Gimnasia LP vs Belgrano
Team pages: Gimnasia LP · Belgrano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.45Total
Gimnasia LP1.31
Belgrano1.14
1X2
Gimnasia LP
Draw
Belgrano
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Gimnasia LP
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Belgrano
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gimnasia LP
2–1–3
Belgrano
(6 last)
- Belgrano0-1Gimnasia LP
- Belgrano0-1Gimnasia LP
- Gimnasia LP0-2Belgrano
- Belgrano2-0Gimnasia LP
- Belgrano2-0Gimnasia LP
- Gimnasia LP1-1Belgrano
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gimnasia LP 1561 · Belgrano 1482
| Gimnasia LP | Draw | Belgrano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Market | 41% | 27% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gimnasia LP (rating 1561 vs 1482).
- H2H favours Belgrano: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gimnasia LP | Belgrano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.2 | 1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 4.5 | 3 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.3 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimnasia LP 2–1–3 Belgrano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Belgrano | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Gimnasia LP |
| 26/08/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Belgrano | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Gimnasia LP |
| 16/04/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | Gimnasia LP | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Belgrano |
| 02/11/18 Argentina Superliga | Belgrano | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Gimnasia LP |
| 25/11/17 Argentina Superliga | Belgrano | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Gimnasia LP |
| 10/12/16 Argentina Superliga | Gimnasia LP | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Belgrano |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 12 | 31 |
| 2 | Argentinos Jrs | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 31 |
| 3 | Gimnasia LP | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 19 | 28 |
| 4 | River Plate | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 23 |
| 5 | Belgrano | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 23 |
| 6 | Barracas Central | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 23 |
| 7 | Independiente Rivadavia | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 22 |
| 8 | Sarmiento | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 21 |
| 9 | Huracan | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 19 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
| 11 | CA Tigre | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| 12 | Racing Club | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 15 |
| 13 | Banfield | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 23 | 14 |
| 14 | CA Aldosivi | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 24 | 11 |
| 15 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 21 | 9 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gimnasia LP | Belgrano |
|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Sarmiento | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Huracan | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Atlético Tucumán | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 3 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Gimnasia LP (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gimnasia LP
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 23/10 | Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/10 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/10 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 03/10 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 19/09 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 13/09 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 05/09 | CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
Belgrano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 25/10 | CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 19/10 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 12/10 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 04/10 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 21/09 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 05/09 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gimnasia LP vs Belgrano?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gimnasia LP win (40%). Probabilities: Gimnasia LP 40%, draw 28%, Belgrano 32%.
How many goals are expected in Gimnasia LP vs Belgrano?
The model expects 2.45 goals (Gimnasia LP 1.31 · Belgrano 1.14), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Gimnasia LP vs Belgrano?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.