Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 15/08, 19:30
Prediction: San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe
Team pages: San Lorenzo · Union Santa Fe
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.8Total
San Lorenzo0.9
Union Santa Fe0.9
1X2
San Lorenzo
Draw
Union Santa Fe
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
San Lorenzo
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Union Santa Fe
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Lorenzo
1–4–1
Union Santa Fe
(6 last)
- Union Santa Fe0-0San Lorenzo
- Union Santa Fe2-1San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo0-0Union Santa Fe
- Union Santa Fe1-1San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo1-0Union Santa Fe
- San Lorenzo2-2Union Santa Fe
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Lorenzo 1457 · Union Santa Fe 1453
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Union Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 36% | 32% |
| Market | 34% | 32% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.8 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Lorenzo | Union Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.5 | 3 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.2 | 5.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Lorenzo 1–4–1 Union Santa Fe
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Union Santa Fe | 0-0 HT 0-0 | San Lorenzo |
| 15/06/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Union Santa Fe | 2-1 HT 0-1 | San Lorenzo |
| 05/02/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Union Santa Fe |
| 05/09/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Union Santa Fe | 1-1 HT 0-1 | San Lorenzo |
| 25/02/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Union Santa Fe |
| 20/07/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | San Lorenzo | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Union Santa Fe |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Velez Sarsfield | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Deportivo Riestra | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | CA Independiente | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Boca Juniors | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 7 | Newell's | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 9 | Defensa y Justicia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | Platense | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 11 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| 12 | Lanus | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | San Lorenzo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Estudiantes LP | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 15 | Central Cordoba | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | San Lorenzo | Union Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Mendoza | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Lanus | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| CA Independiente | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: San Lorenzo (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Lorenzo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 29/07 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 17/07 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 7 | D |
| 27/05 | Deportivo Recoleta Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 21/05 | Santos Copa Sudamericana |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 29/04 | Santos Copa Sudamericana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Union Santa Fe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Lanus TEST Fixtures |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | CA Independiente Argentina Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 13/05 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 27/04 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 10 | D |
| 18/04 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-2 | 2-3 | 15 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 10 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe?
According to our model, the most likely result is a draw (34%). Probabilities: San Lorenzo 33%, draw 34%, Union Santa Fe 33%.
How many goals are expected in San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe?
The model expects 1.8 goals (San Lorenzo 0.9 · Union Santa Fe 0.9), with a 50% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.