Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 07/11, 02:00
Prediction: CA Tigre vs Sarmiento
Team pages: CA Tigre · Sarmiento
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.28Total
CA Tigre1.48
Sarmiento0.8
1X2
CA Tigre
Draw
Sarmiento
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
CA Tigre
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Sarmiento
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CA Tigre
1–3–2
Sarmiento
(6 last)
- Sarmiento1-0CA Tigre
- Sarmiento0-0CA Tigre
- CA Tigre0-0Sarmiento
- Sarmiento2-0CA Tigre
- CA Tigre1-0Sarmiento
- Sarmiento2-2CA Tigre
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CA Tigre 1449 · Sarmiento 1495
| CA Tigre | Draw | Sarmiento | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 29% | 19% |
| Market | 52% | 29% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sarmiento (rating 1449 vs 1495).
- H2H favours Sarmiento: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CA Tigre | Sarmiento | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.4 | 1.3 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5 | 1 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.3 | 4.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Tigre 1–3–2 Sarmiento
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 1-0 HT 1-0 | CA Tigre |
| 18/08/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CA Tigre |
| 25/01/24 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | CA Tigre | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sarmiento |
| 20/08/23 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 2-0 HT 1-0 | CA Tigre |
| 14/04/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Tigre | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Sarmiento |
| 05/10/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | Sarmiento | 2-2 HT 1-2 | CA Tigre |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosario Central | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 12 | 31 |
| 2 | Argentinos Jrs | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 31 |
| 3 | Gimnasia LP | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 19 | 28 |
| 4 | River Plate | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 23 |
| 5 | Belgrano | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 23 |
| 6 | Barracas Central | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 13 | 23 |
| 7 | Independiente Rivadavia | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 22 |
| 8 | Sarmiento | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 21 |
| 9 | Huracan | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 19 |
| 10 | Atlético Tucumán | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 17 |
| 11 | CA Tigre | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| 12 | Racing Club | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 15 |
| 13 | Banfield | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 23 | 14 |
| 14 | CA Aldosivi | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 24 | 11 |
| 15 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 21 | 9 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CA Tigre | Sarmiento |
|---|---|---|
| Rosario Central | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Gimnasia LP | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Barracas Central | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: CA Tigre (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CA Tigre
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 24/10 | Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 17/10 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 11/10 | Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 05/10 | Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/09 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 13/09 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 01/09 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 25/08 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Sarmiento
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 23/10 | Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 20/10 | Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 15/10 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 09/10 | CA Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 19/09 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 04/09 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 29/08 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CA Tigre vs Sarmiento?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Tigre win (52%). Probabilities: CA Tigre 52%, draw 29%, Sarmiento 19%.
How many goals are expected in CA Tigre vs Sarmiento?
The model expects 2.28 goals (CA Tigre 1.48 · Sarmiento 0.8), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in CA Tigre vs Sarmiento?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.