Football · Argentina Torneo A · 13/09, 20:30

Prediction: Gimnasia y Esgrima vs Sarmiento de Resistencia

Team pages: Gimnasia y Esgrima · Sarmiento de Resistencia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Gimnasia y Esgrima1.44

Sarmiento de Resistencia0.74

1X2

53% 28% 18%

Gimnasia y Esgrima Draw Sarmiento de Resistencia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Gimnasia y Esgrima 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLWDWWDL

Sarmiento de Resistencia 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLWLLW

Head-to-head

Gimnasia y Esgrima 0–2–4 Sarmiento de Resistencia (6 last)

Gimnasia y Esgrima1-2Sarmiento de Resistencia
Sarmiento de Resistencia1-0Gimnasia y Esgrima
Gimnasia y Esgrima0-1Sarmiento de Resistencia
Sarmiento de Resistencia0-0Gimnasia y Esgrima
Sarmiento de Resistencia0-0Gimnasia y Esgrima
Gimnasia y Esgrima2-4Sarmiento de Resistencia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gimnasia y Esgrima 1523 · Sarmiento de Resistencia 1462

	Gimnasia y Esgrima	Draw	Sarmiento de Resistencia
Our model	53%	29%	18%
Market	54%	28%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gimnasia y Esgrima (rating 1523 vs 1462).
H2H favours Sarmiento de Resistencia: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gimnasia y Esgrima	Sarmiento de Resistencia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.4	0.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 5.2	1.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.25

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
21:41 +13’	1.67	3.25	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimnasia y Esgrima 0–2–4 Sarmiento de Resistencia

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/08/25 Argentina Torneo A	Gimnasia y Esgrima	1-2 HT 1-2	Sarmiento de Resistencia
11/08/24 Argentina Torneo A	Sarmiento de Resistencia	1-0 HT 0-0	Gimnasia y Esgrima
25/08/22 Argentina Torneo A	Gimnasia y Esgrima	0-1 HT 0-0	Sarmiento de Resistencia
15/05/22 Argentina Torneo A	Sarmiento de Resistencia	0-0	Gimnasia y Esgrima
11/09/21 Argentina Torneo A	Sarmiento de Resistencia	0-0 HT 0-0	Gimnasia y Esgrima
07/06/21 Argentina Torneo A	Gimnasia y Esgrima	2-4 HT 2-3	Sarmiento de Resistencia

Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Relegation round, Group A

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boca Unidos	6	4	2	0	11	3	14
2	Gimnasia y Esgrima	6	3	2	1	8	1	11
3	Escobar FC	7	3	2	2	7	9	11
4	Independiente Chivilcoy	6	2	3	1	5	3	9
5	Defensores Puerto Vilelas	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
6	Club Atlético El Linqueño	6	1	4	1	4	3	7
7	Sportivo Las Parejas	6	1	3	2	3	3	6
8	Sarmiento de Resistencia	6	2	0	4	4	12	6
9	Tucuman Central	7	0	2	5	8	17	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gimnasia y Esgrima	Sarmiento de Resistencia
Boca Unidos	0-1 L	0-3 L
Independiente Chivilcoy	0-0 D	2-1 W
Escobar FC	2-0 W	0-1 L
Defensores Puerto Vilelas	2-0 W	1-4 L
Tucuman Central	4-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Gimnasia y Esgrima (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gimnasia y Esgrima

LWDLWDWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Boca Unidos Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
30/08	Independiente Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
23/08	Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
16/08	Defensores Puerto Vilelas Argentina Torneo A	2-0	2-0	7	9	W
13/08	Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
02/08	Tucuman Central Argentina Torneo A	2-0	4-0	8	2	W
26/07	Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-1	9	3	L
12/07	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
05/07	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela Argentina Torneo A	1-0	3-0	1	6	W
28/06	Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-2	4	7	L

Sarmiento de Resistencia

LWLWLLWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Tucuman Central Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	11	2	W
30/08	Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A	0-2	0-3	2	6	L
16/08	Boca Unidos Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
12/08	Independiente Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	1-1	2-1	1	6	W
08/08	Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
03/08	Defensores Puerto Vilelas Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-4	6	5	L
26/07	Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A	2-0	2-1	6	1	W
05/07	Boca Unidos Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
28/06	Tucuman Central Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
21/06	San Martin Formosa Argentina Torneo A	0-2	0-3	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gimnasia y Esgrima vs Sarmiento de Resistencia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gimnasia y Esgrima win (53%). Probabilities: Gimnasia y Esgrima 53%, draw 28%, Sarmiento de Resistencia 18%.

How many goals are expected in Gimnasia y Esgrima vs Sarmiento de Resistencia?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Gimnasia y Esgrima 1.44 · Sarmiento de Resistencia 0.74), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Gimnasia y Esgrima vs Sarmiento de Resistencia?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.