Football · Argentina Torneo A · 20/09, 20:00
Prediction: Deportivo Rincon vs Santamarina Tandil
Team pages: Deportivo Rincon · Santamarina Tandil
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.98Total
Deportivo Rincon1.5
Santamarina Tandil0.48
1X2
Deportivo Rincon
Draw
Santamarina Tandil
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 56%
Most likely score
1-0 20%
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo Rincon
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Santamarina Tandil
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo Rincon
2–2
Santamarina Tandil
(4 last)
- Deportivo Rincon2-0Santamarina Tandil
- Santamarina Tandil1-0Deportivo Rincon
- Santamarina Tandil3-2Deportivo Rincon
- Deportivo Rincon1-0Santamarina Tandil
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Rincon 1512 · Santamarina Tandil 1437
| Deportivo Rincon | Draw | Santamarina Tandil | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 28% | 11% |
| Market | 64% | 23% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.98 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Rincon (rating 1512 vs 1437).
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Rincon | Santamarina Tandil | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.3 | 0.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 0/70/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 2.4 | 2.1 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Rincon 2–0–2 Santamarina Tandil
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/25 Argentina Torneo A | Deportivo Rincon | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Santamarina Tandil |
| 06/04/25 Argentina Torneo A | Santamarina Tandil | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Rincon |
| 30/06/24 Argentina Torneo A | Santamarina Tandil | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Rincon |
| 04/05/24 Argentina Torneo A | Deportivo Rincon | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Santamarina Tandil |
Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Relegation round, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Martin de Mendoza | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | FADEP Mendoza | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | Germinal de Rawson | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | CA Costa Brava | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Juventud Unida Universitario | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Deportivo Rincon | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Guillermo Brown | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| 8 | Club Circulo Deportivo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 8 |
| 9 | Santamarina Tandil | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 6 |
| 9 | Sol de Mayo | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 6 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Rincon | Santamarina Tandil |
|---|---|---|
| FADEP Mendoza | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| CA Costa Brava | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Germinal de Rawson | 0-0 D | 1-5 L |
| Juventud Unida Universitario | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| San Martin de Mendoza | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Club Circulo Deportivo | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Sol de Mayo | 4-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Guillermo Brown | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Deportivo Rincon (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Rincon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | FADEP Mendoza Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 06/09 | CA Costa Brava Argentina Torneo A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Germinal de Rawson Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Juventud Unida Universitario Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | San Martin de Mendoza Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/08 | Club Circulo Deportivo Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 08/08 | Sol de Mayo Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 4-2 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | Guillermo Brown Argentina Torneo A |
2-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | CA Costa Brava Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 12/07 | Huracan Las Heras Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | L |
Santamarina Tandil
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | CA Costa Brava Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Juventud Unida Universitario Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Club Circulo Deportivo Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Guillermo Brown Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 17/08 | FADEP Mendoza Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 12/08 | Germinal de Rawson Argentina Torneo A |
1-1 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 08/08 | San Martin de Mendoza Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 02/08 | Sol de Mayo Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Olimpo B Blanca Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 11/07 | CA Alvarado Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Rincon vs Santamarina Tandil?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Rincon win (63%). Probabilities: Deportivo Rincon 63%, draw 25%, Santamarina Tandil 12%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Rincon vs Santamarina Tandil?
The model expects 1.98 goals (Deportivo Rincon 1.5 · Santamarina Tandil 0.48), with a 52% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Rincon vs Santamarina Tandil?
The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.