Football · Argentina Torneo A · 20/09, 20:00

Prediction: CA Sarmiento de la Banda vs Defensores de Belgrano VR

Team pages: CA Sarmiento de la Banda · Defensores de Belgrano VR

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.98Total

CA Sarmiento de la Banda1.22

Defensores de Belgrano VR0.76

1X2

46% 31% 22%

CA Sarmiento de la Banda Draw Defensores de Belgrano VR

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Sarmiento de la Banda 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWDDDLWLLL

Defensores de Belgrano VR 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWLDWLLW

Head-to-head

CA Sarmiento de la Banda 1–0 Defensores de Belgrano VR (1 last)

CA Sarmiento de la Banda1-0Defensores de Belgrano VR

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Sarmiento de la Banda 1466 · Defensores de Belgrano VR 1509

	CA Sarmiento de la Banda	Draw	Defensores de Belgrano VR
Our model	46%	32%	22%
Market	47%	30%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 1.98 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Defensores de Belgrano VR (rating 1466 vs 1509).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Sarmiento de la Banda	Defensores de Belgrano VR
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.6	0.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.00

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:53 +4’	1.91	3.00	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Sarmiento de la Banda 1–0–0 Defensores de Belgrano VR

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/08/24 Argentina Torneo A	CA Sarmiento de la Banda	1-0 HT 1-0	Defensores de Belgrano VR

Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Main round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Martin Formosa	7	5	1	1	14	5	16
2	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy	7	4	2	1	6	2	14
3	Sol de America de Formosa	7	4	1	2	8	6	13
4	CA Douglas Haig	7	3	2	2	12	7	11
5	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela	7	3	2	2	8	5	11
6	Defensores de Belgrano VR	7	3	1	3	4	3	10
7	CA Sarmiento de la Banda	7	1	2	4	6	12	5
8	Sportivo Belgrano	8	1	2	5	3	14	5
9	CA Bartolome Mitre	7	1	1	5	3	10	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Sarmiento de la Banda	Defensores de Belgrano VR
San Martin Formosa	0-3 L	1-0 W
CA 9 de Julio Rafaela	1-4 L	0-1 L
Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy	0-1 L	0-1 L
Sportivo Belgrano	3-0 W	2-0 W
CA Douglas Haig	1-3 L	0-0 D
Sol de America de Formosa	0-0 D	0-1 L
CA Bartolome Mitre	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Defensores de Belgrano VR (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Sarmiento de la Banda

LWDDDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	San Martin Formosa Argentina Torneo A	0-3	0-3	6	10	L
06/09	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela Argentina Torneo A	0-3	1-4	12	4	L
30/08	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
23/08	Sportivo Belgrano Argentina Torneo A	1-0	3-0	2	1	W
16/08	CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-3	1	6	L
13/08	Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
08/08	CA Bartolome Mitre Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
26/07	Tucuman Central Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
12/07	San Martin Formosa Argentina Torneo A	2-0	2-0	2	4	W
04/07	Defensores Puerto Vilelas Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-3	5	4	L

Defensores de Belgrano VR

DWDWLDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	San Martin Formosa Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
30/08	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
23/08	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
17/08	Sportivo Belgrano Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
12/08	CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
09/08	Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
02/08	CA Bartolome Mitre Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
25/07	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-0	2-2	9	2	D
13/07	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
05/07	Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-1	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Sarmiento de la Banda vs Defensores de Belgrano VR?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Sarmiento de la Banda win (46%). Probabilities: CA Sarmiento de la Banda 46%, draw 31%, Defensores de Belgrano VR 22%.

How many goals are expected in CA Sarmiento de la Banda vs Defensores de Belgrano VR?

The model expects 1.98 goals (CA Sarmiento de la Banda 1.22 · Defensores de Belgrano VR 0.76), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Sarmiento de la Banda vs Defensores de Belgrano VR?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.