Football · Argentina Torneo A · 19/09, 20:30

Prediction: Independiente Chivilcoy vs Escobar FC

Team pages: Independiente Chivilcoy · Escobar FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Independiente Chivilcoy1.26

Escobar FC0.81

1X2

46% 31% 23%

Independiente Chivilcoy Draw Escobar FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente Chivilcoy 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLDDLDWDWL

Escobar FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLWDWLDW

Head-to-head

Independiente Chivilcoy 1–1–0 Escobar FC (2 last)

Escobar FC0-0Independiente Chivilcoy
Independiente Chivilcoy2-1Escobar FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente Chivilcoy 1498 · Escobar FC 1506

	Independiente Chivilcoy	Draw	Escobar FC
Our model	46%	32%	23%
Market	46%	31%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente Chivilcoy	Escobar FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.8	1 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X2.90

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 14:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 1.95▼	Bet365 1.95
X	2.88 → 2.90▲	Pinn 2.96 ★
2	3.30 → 3.90▲	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:45 +32’	2.15	2.88	3.30
06:42 +4’	2.45▲	2.80▼	2.88▼
14:13 +16’	1.95▼	2.90▲	3.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:42 +4’	1.93	2.96	3.68

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Chivilcoy 1–1–0 Escobar FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Argentina Torneo A	Escobar FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Independiente Chivilcoy
22/03/26 Argentina Torneo A	Independiente Chivilcoy	2-1 HT 1-1	Escobar FC

Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Relegation round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gimnasia y Esgrima	7	4	2	1	9	1	14
2	Boca Unidos	7	4	2	1	11	4	14
3	Defensores Puerto Vilelas	7	3	2	2	11	8	11
4	Escobar FC	7	3	2	2	7	9	11
5	Club Atlético El Linqueño	7	2	4	1	5	3	10
6	Sportivo Las Parejas	7	2	3	2	7	3	9
7	Independiente Chivilcoy	7	2	3	2	5	5	9
8	Sarmiento de Resistencia	7	2	0	5	4	13	6
9	Tucuman Central	8	0	2	6	8	21	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente Chivilcoy	Escobar FC
Defensores Puerto Vilelas	0-2 L	2-1 W
Club Atlético El Linqueño	1-0 W	1-1 D
Gimnasia y Esgrima	0-0 D	0-2 L
Tucuman Central	2-0 W	3-2 W
Sportivo Las Parejas	0-0 D	0-0 D
Sarmiento de Resistencia	1-2 L	1-0 W
Boca Unidos	1-1 D	0-3 L
Sportivo Belgrano	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 2 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Independiente Chivilcoy (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente Chivilcoy

DLDDLDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Defensores Puerto Vilelas Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
06/09	Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
30/08	Gimnasia y Esgrima Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
23/08	Tucuman Central Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
16/08	Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
12/08	Sarmiento de Resistencia Argentina Torneo A	1-1	1-2	11	6	L
08/08	Boca Unidos Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
26/07	Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/07	Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
05/07	Sportivo Belgrano Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-1	4	2	D

Escobar FC

DWDLWDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Defensores Puerto Vilelas Argentina Torneo A	0-0	2-1	0	4	W
30/08	Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	Gimnasia y Esgrima Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
15/08	Tucuman Central Argentina Torneo A	1-1	3-2	5	8	W
12/08	Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
08/08	Sarmiento de Resistencia Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	0	2	W
01/08	Boca Unidos Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
25/07	Sportivo Belgrano Argentina Torneo A	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
11/07	CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
05/07	Defensores de Belgrano VR Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-1	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Chivilcoy vs Escobar FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente Chivilcoy win (46%). Probabilities: Independiente Chivilcoy 46%, draw 31%, Escobar FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Chivilcoy vs Escobar FC?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Independiente Chivilcoy 1.26 · Escobar FC 0.81), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Chivilcoy vs Escobar FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.