Football · Georgia Cup · 02/08, 14:30

Prediction: FC Gareji vs FC Gagra

Team pages: FC Gagra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

FC Gareji1.49

FC Gagra1.21

1X2

43% 28% 30%

FC Gareji Draw FC Gagra

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Gareji 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWWDLW

FC Gagra 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLDLWWWDDW

Head-to-head

FC Gareji 0–2–4 FC Gagra (6 last)

FC Gagra4-1FC Gareji
FC Gareji2-2FC Gagra
FC Gagra1-1FC Gareji
FC Gareji0-1FC Gagra
FC Gagra3-0FC Gareji
FC Gareji1-2FC Gagra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Gareji 1545 · FC Gagra 1530

	FC Gareji	Draw	FC Gagra
Our model	42%	28%	30%
Market	43%	27%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Gagra: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Gareji	FC Gagra
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.7	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.8	1.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.30

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
2	2.90 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:57 +28’	2.10	3.40	2.90
13:00 +3’	2.10	3.30▼	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Gareji 0–2–4 FC Gagra

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/11/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	4-1 HT 2-0	FC Gareji
20/09/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gareji	2-2 HT 2-0	FC Gagra
21/05/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gagra	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Gareji
10/04/25 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	FC Gareji	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Gagra
03/12/21 Georgia First League	FC Gagra	3-0 HT 2-0	FC Gareji
28/09/21 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Gagra

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Gareji

WWDWDWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	FC Basa Georgia Cup	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
22/06	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-2	1-2	8	4	L
17/06	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
13/06	FC Gori Georgia First League	2-1	3-1	5	5	W
30/05	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	2-0	3-2	4	8	W
24/05	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	0-1	1-1	1	5	D
20/05	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
16/05	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
10/05	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
06/05	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	2-0	1	4	W

FC Gagra

LLDLWWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	FC Samtskhe Georgia Cup	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
24/06	Samgurali Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
18/06	Meshakhte Tkibuli Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/06	Dinamo Tbilisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-0	2-1	1	0	W
28/05	Torpedo Kutaisi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	2-1	2-1	1	4	W
24/05	Dila Gori Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	2-0	1	4	W
20/05	FC Iberia 1999 Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
16/05	FC Rustavi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-0	1-1	2	0	D
11/05	FC Spaeri Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
06/05	Dinamo Batumi Georgia Erovnuli Liga	0-1	1-2	13	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Gareji vs FC Gagra?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Gareji win (43%). Probabilities: FC Gareji 43%, draw 28%, FC Gagra 30%.

How many goals are expected in FC Gareji vs FC Gagra?

The model expects 2.7 goals (FC Gareji 1.49 · FC Gagra 1.21), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Gareji vs FC Gagra?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.