Football · Serbia Super Liga · 01/08, 18:00

Prediction: FK Zeleznicar Pancevo vs Mladost Lucani

Team pages: FK Zeleznicar Pancevo · Mladost Lucani

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo1.6

Mladost Lucani0.74

1X2

57% 26% 16%

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Draw Mladost Lucani

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDLDLWWL

Mladost Lucani 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWWDD

Head-to-head

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 1–1–4 Mladost Lucani (6 last)

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo5-0Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani2-1FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
Mladost Lucani1-1FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo1-2Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani1-0FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo0-2Mladost Lucani

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 1503 · Mladost Lucani 1565

	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	Draw	Mladost Lucani
Our model	57%	27%	16%
Market	58%	26%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mladost Lucani (rating 1503 vs 1565).
H2H favours Mladost Lucani: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	Mladost Lucani
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/44/33%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4	1.5 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.60

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:05 +10’	1.60	3.60	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 1–1–4 Mladost Lucani

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Serbia Super Liga	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	5-0 HT 1-0	Mladost Lucani
19/10/25 Serbia Super Liga	Mladost Lucani	2-1 HT 2-0	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
03/03/25 Serbia Super Liga	Mladost Lucani	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
05/10/24 Serbia Super Liga	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	1-2 HT 1-1	Mladost Lucani
02/12/23 Serbia Super Liga	Mladost Lucani	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
05/08/23 Serbia Super Liga	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	0-2 HT 0-2	Mladost Lucani

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	2	2	0	0	8	1	6
2	IMT Novi Belgrade	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
3	Partizan Belgrade	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
4	FK Novi Pazar	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
5	Vojvodina	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
6	FK Cukaricki	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
6	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
8	Mladost Lucani	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
9	FK Radnik Surdulica	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
10	FK Zemun	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
11	OFK Beograd	2	0	1	1	0	4	1
12	FK Radnicki 1923	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
13	Radnicki Nis	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
14	FK Macva Sabac	2	0	0	2	1	8	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	Mladost Lucani
Radnicki Nis	2-1 W	0-1 L
FK Novi Pazar	2-2 D	0-0 D
FK Radnik Surdulica	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Zeleznicar Pancevo (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

WDDDLDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/07	Braga UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
17/07	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
09/07	Debreceni VSC Europe Friendlies	2-1	3-1	4	2	W
07/07	CSKA 1948 Sofia Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
04/07	NK Maribor Europe Friendlies	–	1-1	–	–	D
30/06	Wolfsberger AC Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-2	0	2	L
22/05	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	10	1	D
17/05	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	0-1	2-2	1	2	D
09/05	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
02/05	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-0	5	3	W

Mladost Lucani

WWLWWWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
19/07	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
05/07	FK Macva Sabac Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-1	1	5	W
01/07	IMT Novi Belgrade Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	6	0	W
28/06	FK Novi Pazar Europe Friendlies	2-1	3-1	3	3	W
24/05	FK Napredak Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	4	0	W
16/05	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Super Liga	0-1	4-2	4	4	W
10/05	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
03/05	Spartak Subotica Serbia Super Liga	2-1	2-1	3	4	W
27/04	FK Backa Topola Serbia Super Liga	1-1	2-1	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Zeleznicar Pancevo vs Mladost Lucani?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Zeleznicar Pancevo win (57%). Probabilities: FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 57%, draw 26%, Mladost Lucani 16%.

How many goals are expected in FK Zeleznicar Pancevo vs Mladost Lucani?

The model expects 2.35 goals (FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 1.6 · Mladost Lucani 0.74), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Zeleznicar Pancevo vs Mladost Lucani?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.