Football · Serbia Super Liga · 08/08, 18:00

Prediction: FK Macva Sabac vs IMT Novi Belgrade

Team pages: FK Macva Sabac · IMT Novi Belgrade

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.02Total

FK Macva Sabac0.73

IMT Novi Belgrade1.29

1X2

21% 29% 50%

FK Macva Sabac Draw IMT Novi Belgrade

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Macva Sabac 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWLLLL

IMT Novi Belgrade 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDLWLWWW

Head-to-head

FK Macva Sabac 1–3–2 IMT Novi Belgrade (6 last)

FK Macva Sabac1-1IMT Novi Belgrade
FK Macva Sabac0-1IMT Novi Belgrade
IMT Novi Belgrade1-3FK Macva Sabac
FK Macva Sabac0-0IMT Novi Belgrade
IMT Novi Belgrade6-1FK Macva Sabac
FK Macva Sabac0-0IMT Novi Belgrade

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Macva Sabac 1456 · IMT Novi Belgrade 1546

	FK Macva Sabac	Draw	IMT Novi Belgrade
Our model	20%	32%	48%
Market	22%	27%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IMT Novi Belgrade (rating 1456 vs 1546).
H2H favours IMT Novi Belgrade: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Macva Sabac	IMT Novi Belgrade
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.7	1.1 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/33/56%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.4	2.1 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.5	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.40

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:32 +6’	4.20	3.40	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Macva Sabac 1–3–2 IMT Novi Belgrade

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/12/25 Serbia Cup	FK Macva Sabac	1-1 HT 0-0	IMT Novi Belgrade
30/10/24 Serbia Cup	FK Macva Sabac	0-1 HT 0-1	IMT Novi Belgrade
22/03/23 Serbia Prva Liga	IMT Novi Belgrade	1-3 HT 1-2	FK Macva Sabac
24/09/22 Serbia Prva Liga	FK Macva Sabac	0-0 HT 0-0	IMT Novi Belgrade
04/04/22 Serbia Prva Liga	IMT Novi Belgrade	6-1 HT 2-0	FK Macva Sabac
02/02/22 Europe Friendlies	FK Macva Sabac	0-0 HT 0-0	IMT Novi Belgrade

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IMT Novi Belgrade	3	3	0	0	7	1	9
2	Crvena Zvezda	2	2	0	0	8	1	6
3	FK Cukaricki	3	2	0	1	5	1	6
4	OFK Beograd	3	1	1	1	4	5	4
5	Partizan Belgrade	3	1	1	1	6	5	4
6	FK Novi Pazar	3	1	1	1	2	4	4
7	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
8	Vojvodina	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
9	Radnicki Nis	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
10	Mladost Lucani	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
11	FK Radnik Surdulica	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
12	FK Zemun	3	0	1	2	2	7	1
13	FK Radnicki 1923	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
14	FK Macva Sabac	2	0	0	2	1	8	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Macva Sabac	IMT Novi Belgrade
Partizan Belgrade	1-3 L	2-1 W
Mladost Lucani	1-2 L	0-1 L
FK Zemun	0-2 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: IMT Novi Belgrade (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Macva Sabac

LWWLDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-3	4	12	L
17/07	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-3	0-5	0	2	L
14/07	FK Proleter 023 Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
05/07	Mladost Lucani Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
01/07	FK Novi Pazar Europe Friendlies	2-1	2-1	2	5	W
27/06	OFK Petrovac Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
09/05	Loznica Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
03/05	FK Vozdovac Serbia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	0	12	W
27/04	OFK Vrsac Serbia Prva Liga	–	3-0	–	–	W
22/04	FK Zemun Serbia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	3	3	L

IMT Novi Belgrade

DWDDLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-0	2-1	5	5	W
25/07	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	1-0	4-0	11	3	W
19/07	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
11/07	FK Radnicki 1923 Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
03/07	Maccabi Tel Aviv Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
01/07	Mladost Lucani Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	7	0	L
26/06	Borac Banja Luka Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
24/05	FK Backa Topola Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/05	Spartak Subotica Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
10/05	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	8	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Macva Sabac vs IMT Novi Belgrade?

According to our model, the most likely result is an IMT Novi Belgrade win (50%). Probabilities: FK Macva Sabac 21%, draw 29%, IMT Novi Belgrade 50%.

How many goals are expected in FK Macva Sabac vs IMT Novi Belgrade?

The model expects 2.02 goals (FK Macva Sabac 0.73 · IMT Novi Belgrade 1.29), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Macva Sabac vs IMT Novi Belgrade?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.