Football · Serbia Super Liga · 01/08, 18:00

Prediction: FK Novi Pazar vs OFK Beograd

Team pages: FK Novi Pazar · OFK Beograd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

FK Novi Pazar1.48

OFK Beograd1.02

1X2

47% 28% 25%

FK Novi Pazar Draw OFK Beograd

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Novi Pazar 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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OFK Beograd 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FK Novi Pazar 3–2–1 OFK Beograd (6 last)

FK Novi Pazar1-5OFK Beograd
FK Novi Pazar2-1OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd0-2FK Novi Pazar
OFK Beograd2-3FK Novi Pazar
OFK Beograd1-1FK Novi Pazar
FK Novi Pazar0-0OFK Beograd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Novi Pazar 1475 · OFK Beograd 1458

	FK Novi Pazar	Draw	OFK Beograd
Our model	47%	29%	25%
Market	47%	27%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FK Novi Pazar: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Novi Pazar	OFK Beograd
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.6	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.1	1.8 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +3’	1.95	3.40	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Novi Pazar 3–2–1 OFK Beograd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Serbia Super Liga	FK Novi Pazar	1-5 HT 1-1	OFK Beograd
15/02/26 Serbia Super Liga	FK Novi Pazar	2-1 HT 1-1	OFK Beograd
13/09/25 Serbia Super Liga	OFK Beograd	0-2 HT 0-0	FK Novi Pazar
25/05/25 Serbia Super Liga	OFK Beograd	2-3 HT 1-1	FK Novi Pazar
09/12/24 Serbia Super Liga	OFK Beograd	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Novi Pazar
03/08/24 Serbia Super Liga	FK Novi Pazar	0-0 HT 0-0	OFK Beograd

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	2	2	0	0	8	1	6
2	IMT Novi Belgrade	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
3	Partizan Belgrade	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
4	FK Novi Pazar	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
5	Vojvodina	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
6	FK Cukaricki	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
6	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
8	Mladost Lucani	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
9	FK Radnik Surdulica	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
10	FK Zemun	2	0	1	1	2	6	1
11	OFK Beograd	2	0	1	1	0	4	1
12	FK Radnicki 1923	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
13	Radnicki Nis	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
14	FK Macva Sabac	2	0	0	2	1	8	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Novi Pazar	OFK Beograd
FK Radnicki 1923	1-0 W	2-1 W
FK Radnik Surdulica	0-1 L	0-0 D
Vojvodina	0-3 L	0-4 L
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	2-2 D	0-2 L
Crvena Zvezda	2-1 W	2-1 W
Partizan Belgrade	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Novi Pazar

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
18/07	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
09/07	FK Radnik Surdulica Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
01/07	FK Macva Sabac Europe Friendlies	1-2	1-2	5	5	L
28/06	Mladost Lucani Europe Friendlies	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
23/05	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-2	0-3	1	4	L
17/05	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-2	4	2	D
09/05	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-0	2-1	3	6	W
02/05	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-2	1-2	5	4	L
26/04	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	1-1	2-2	5	4	D

OFK Beograd

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
19/07	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-4	1	3	L
09/07	Buducnost Podgorica Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-2	6	8	L
08/07	OFK Vrsac Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
01/07	FK Radnicki 1923 Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
22/05	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-1	1	1	W
17/05	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
09/05	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	1-1	1-1	1	7	D
02/05	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
26/04	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	1-1	1-1	4	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Novi Pazar vs OFK Beograd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Novi Pazar win (47%). Probabilities: FK Novi Pazar 47%, draw 28%, OFK Beograd 25%.

How many goals are expected in FK Novi Pazar vs OFK Beograd?

The model expects 2.51 goals (FK Novi Pazar 1.48 · OFK Beograd 1.02), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Novi Pazar vs OFK Beograd?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.