Football · Chile Segunda · 22/08, 22:00
Prediction: Provincial Ovalle vs Real Juventud San Joaquin
Team pages: Provincial Ovalle · Real Juventud San Joaquin
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.62Total
Provincial Ovalle1.42
Real Juventud San Joaquin1.2
1X2
Provincial Ovalle
Draw
Real Juventud San Joaquin
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Provincial Ovalle
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Real Juventud San Joaquin
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Provincial Ovalle
2–1–3
Real Juventud San Joaquin
(6 last)
- Provincial Ovalle1-6Real Juventud San Joaquin
- Real Juventud San Joaquin3-2Provincial Ovalle
- Real Juventud San Joaquin1-0Provincial Ovalle
- Provincial Ovalle0-0Real Juventud San Joaquin
- Real Juventud San Joaquin1-2Provincial Ovalle
- Provincial Ovalle4-0Real Juventud San Joaquin
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Provincial Ovalle 1422 · Real Juventud San Joaquin 1477
| Provincial Ovalle | Draw | Real Juventud San Joaquin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Market | 42% | 27% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Juventud San Joaquin (rating 1422 vs 1477).
- H2H favours Real Juventud San Joaquin: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Provincial Ovalle | Real Juventud San Joaquin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 2 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.2 | 1.8 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.4 | 5.5 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Provincial Ovalle 2–1–3 Real Juventud San Joaquin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Chile Segunda | Provincial Ovalle | 1-6 HT 0-3 | Real Juventud San Joaquin |
| 19/04/26 Chile Segunda | Real Juventud San Joaquin | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Provincial Ovalle |
| 08/11/25 Chile Segunda | Real Juventud San Joaquin | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Provincial Ovalle |
| 30/05/25 Chile Segunda | Provincial Ovalle | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Real Juventud San Joaquin |
| 12/10/24 Chile Segunda | Real Juventud San Joaquin | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Provincial Ovalle |
| 19/05/24 Chile Segunda | Provincial Ovalle | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Real Juventud San Joaquin |
Standings · Chile Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Relegation Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Rengo Unido | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Santiago Morning | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Lota Schwager | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | General Velásquez | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Real Juventud San Joaquin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 | Provincial Ovalle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 7 | AC Colina | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Provincial Ovalle | Real Juventud San Joaquin |
|---|---|---|
| AC Colina | 2-1 W | 1-5 L |
| Santiago City | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| CD Trasandino de Los Andes | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Concon National | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Brujas de Salamanca | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Provincial Ovalle (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Provincial Ovalle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | General Velásquez Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 04/07 | AC Colina Chile Segunda |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 26/06 | Santiago City Chile Segunda |
2-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 21/06 | Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda |
0-3 | 1-6 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 08/06 | CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Concon National Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/05 | Brujas de Salamanca Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | AC Colina Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 27/04 | Santiago City Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
Real Juventud San Joaquin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Santiago Morning Chile Segunda |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 12/07 | AC Colina Chile Segunda |
0-2 | 1-5 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 05/07 | CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 28/06 | Brujas de Salamanca Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 21/06 | Provincial Ovalle Chile Segunda |
3-0 | 6-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | Concon National Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 25/05 | Santiago City Chile Segunda |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | AC Colina Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 02/05 | CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 26/04 | Brujas de Salamanca Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 9 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Provincial Ovalle vs Real Juventud San Joaquin?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Provincial Ovalle win (41%). Probabilities: Provincial Ovalle 41%, draw 28%, Real Juventud San Joaquin 31%.
How many goals are expected in Provincial Ovalle vs Real Juventud San Joaquin?
The model expects 2.62 goals (Provincial Ovalle 1.42 · Real Juventud San Joaquin 1.2), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Provincial Ovalle vs Real Juventud San Joaquin?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.