Football · Guatemala Primera Division · 26/07, 19:00

Prediction: CD Achuapa vs Deportivo Fraijanes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

CD Achuapa2.02

Deportivo Fraijanes0.78

1X2

66% 22% 13%

CD Achuapa Draw Deportivo Fraijanes

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

CD Achuapa 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Deportivo Fraijanes 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Achuapa 1419 · Deportivo Fraijanes 1563

	CD Achuapa	Draw	Deportivo Fraijanes
Our model	65%	22%	12%
Market	66%	21%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Fraijanes (rating 1419 vs 1563).
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Achuapa	Deportivo Fraijanes
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.9	2.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.9	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.1	4.2 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.20

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.88

2 (+1.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.36▼	Bet365 1.36
X	3.75 → 4.20▲	Bet365 4.20
2	5.75 → 7.00▲	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +3’	1.48	3.75	5.75
16:59 +4’	1.36▼	4.20▲	7.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Guatemala Primera Division · Primera Division 26/27, Apertura, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CS Deportivo Sacachispas	1	1	0	1	0	3
2	Mictlán	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	CSD Sayaxche	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Champs Academy	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	CSD Chiquimulilla	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	CD Achuapa	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Deportivo Fraijanes	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Nueva Santa Rosa CDF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	San Benito FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	AFF Guatemala	1	0	1	0	1	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

CD Achuapa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/04	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	2-2	5	6	D
19/04	Coban Imperial Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	1-3	7	4	L
17/04	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	0-3	2	6	L
13/04	Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
07/04	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	1-3	1	4	L
02/04	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
29/03	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
21/03	Mictlán Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
18/03	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
15/03	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	1-2	8	5	L

Deportivo Fraijanes

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/05	Poptun FC Guatemala Segunda Division	3-1	4-1	2	2	W
23/05	CSD Amatitlan Guatemala Segunda Division	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
13/05	Poptun FC Guatemala Segunda Division	1-0	1-0	8	7	W
03/05	Deportivo Patutul Guatemala Segunda Division	1-1	4-2	9	8	W
19/04	Barillas FC Guatemala Segunda Division	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
01/04	CSD Amatitlan Guatemala Segunda Division	1-2	2-2	8	4	D
29/03	Draco FC Guatemala Segunda Division	2-0	3-1	7	8	W
22/03	Puerto San Jose Guatemala Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	5	8	W
11/03	Escuintla FC Guatemala Segunda Division	1-0	4-0	5	7	W
05/03	AFF Guatemala II Guatemala Segunda Division	0-1	0-3	16	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Achuapa vs Deportivo Fraijanes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Achuapa win (66%). Probabilities: CD Achuapa 66%, draw 22%, Deportivo Fraijanes 13%.

How many goals are expected in CD Achuapa vs Deportivo Fraijanes?

The model expects 2.79 goals (CD Achuapa 2.02 · Deportivo Fraijanes 0.78), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Achuapa vs Deportivo Fraijanes?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.